DEBATE 1 PRE-GAME

At 9:00 p.m. tonight, live from the electoral and meteorological ground zero of southern Florida, comes the first of three presidential debates. Everyone seems to think this will be the most-watched; it's all supposed to be about foreign policy and national security. Finally. Perhaps. Here's what I'm watching for:

1. The debate has been scripted out of the debate. This is basically a forum. The forum setup, where candidates may not directly address each other, was popular during the Democratic primaries where everyone was just worried about getting equal camera time. I think I speak for every television viewer, here: we want a classic moment! I know I speak for no campaign advisers on either team.


2. Two questions that will not be asked, but the answers to which I would like to hear: For Bush -- Will the United States seek a firm commitment from the next new Iraqi government to allow a number of standing bases to remain in Iraq indefinitely? For Kerry-- If China moved to invade Taiwan, would the United States send American servicemen to defend its ally, a democracy on the South China Sea?


3. Both candidates have big questions to answer on foreign policy questions. The impression exists, but is not yet dominant, that Bush is not giving honest assessments of where Iraq is at right now. He could derail those comments, or he could accelerate them. Kerry has so many problems: a split on Iraq policy among supporters, no known policy ideas, no consistent approach to foreign affairs, and nary a compelling sound bite all year.


4. Advice at least one Democrat has probably already given to Kerry: Ixnay on the Ietnamvay.


5. This plan to get rid of the timed lights, a Bush campaign demand, could actually sharpen Kerry. Faced with mandatory pithiness, he can prepare to give short, succinct answers. Imagine that! So why, just today, did his advisers make a ham-handed threat to remove the lights themselves? Perhaps they know something about Kerry's preparations that we don't.


6. Anybody really concerned about what happens if Bush mispronounces a word, jumbles a common saying or otherwise puts his oral skills on shuffle? Not that I can tell.


7. Bush does have one memorable line that he surely will not be the first to mention: "Mission accomplished."


8. Much as I would like to deny it, having lived well inside the Beltway for a few years now, my perception is rooted in the same media environment in which the lazy, liberalish established media thrives. I'll be talking to friends and family around the country for a day or so before I'm sure of the victor.


9. "Saturday Night Live" might be worth checking out. Seth "Kerry" Myers is neither a jocular cut-up like Will Ferrell nor an accomplished caricaturist like Darrell Hammond. Who even plays Bush anymore, I forget. Chris Parnell (less illustrious among the "ell" cast members) got booted from the role, as I recall. As I said, "might."


10. Roughly speaking, if Bush wins, the election may effectively be over. But if Kerry wins, it's like the groundhog's shadow -- we'll still have a few weeks to go.

I'll be watching. Later tonight I'll say what I can say about it.