HAPPY THANKSGIVING!

I really hope you're not reading this today, as you should be attending to the turkey, drinking beer and watching football. (Looks all right for Joey so far...) Which is what I'll do in just a moment.

But if you do find yourself kicking around the net for awhile today, here are some things to do:

• Find out why Harvey Fierstein is an idiot.

  
  

• Learn from George Will how FDR screwed with Turkey Day, and what Oregon's attorney general had to say about it.

  
  

• Come to understand what a giblet is, and how to pronounce it. (Now I do.)

Well, that's all from me today. Get back to the TV, or to the table, or to the homeless shelter. God bless us every one!

IT'S AN HONOR! ...I THINK

A month or so back Armed Prophet and a colleague attended a swanky DNC fundraiser. You may remember, because I blogged it. And that was the end of it, right? Well, not exactly.

Well, won't some of my leftier readers be pleased to know that Armed Prophet has been cross-posted to the Free Republic! In fact, won't some of my non-rabid readers be pleased to know the same!

As it is with the Freepers -- which I've never been and prudently view with some skepticism -- the comments following comprise something less than a dialogue, although I did enjoy the riff on different 50 Cent tunes the Dems might want to use instead. On the other hand, while Armed Prophet has little good to say about the Democrats, I recoil a bit from reflexively tagging them as the "Rat" party...

P.S. Did I really say there were 30,000 people there? A careful review of my original post reveals: Yes, yes I did. My error by one digit, or about 27,000 people. But even that figure was perhaps overly optimistic. Mindful of the spin, I'd guess maybe there were 2500 on the floor. Maybe.

TMQ IS BACK

Easterbrook said it would resurface, and indeed it has. Though not at Fox Sports, as Armed Prophet might have hoped.

Well, go have a read and tell me if you don't see some intentional parallels between his player/team "prenuptial agreement" and some things that should have been worked out between Easterbrook and ESPN...

WHAT SHOULD WE MAKE OF THIS?

Maybe those cell phone cameras are worth something. From b!X's Portland Communique comes about as close to a story of police brutality caught-on-tape as you'll find in the Rose City. But even that's not very close. A police cruiser has a stuffed monkey stuffed behind the bumper guard, you see, and... Okay. Have a look at the above link, and through that check out the the Portland Tribune story, even though it doesn't add much to what we know now. It at least gives some context to the knee-jerk anger I find both amusing and dispiriting.

Okay, you back?

Really, the PPD just fired Mark Kroeker -- who some might have painted with the alleged racism of the LAPD -- and replaced him with the widely-respected African-American Derrick Foxworth.

So the snapshot was taken outside a hip-hop show. But that show wasn't in significantly-black Northeast Portland; it was in on the border between mostly-white Southwest and Northwest Portland outside Ringler's. (From what I've read, I'd assume the concert itself was upstairs at the Crystal Ballroom.)

Armed Prophet's first response was to scoff and say those who want to see cops as racist -- especially in largely-white and largely-liberal Portland -- were just revealing the results of their own racial Rorsharch tests.

Then, I had to wonder if maybe the cops involved had erred in judgment in not realizing that what could seem cute might be interpreted differently.

Then finally after reading this report, I finally decided: yes, the overly sensitive residents of Portland have just found another cause to fight the anti-establishment battle that suits their misguided consciences... probably.

Based on the biX's coverage so far, it isn't yet clear how the police came into possession of said gorilla, or why it was urine-soaked, or why the owner was so willing to appear before KGW's cameras. But it does seem the initial reaction -- that the PPD cops were enjoying a bit of bad-old-fashioned racial humor at the citizens' expense -- was grossly wrong.

I mean, really. Would you want a urine-soaked stuffed animal sitting in the back of your car?

HOW STONED IS THIS GUY?

And how clueless is the Danbury News Times?

BLOG IS DEFAULTING ON HIS OBLIGATIONS

First this, then this, then this. Is this worth starting a blog war? Not really. Is that what Blog intended with that first post? Probably. Am I going to collect? You bet. Because of that post? No. Because of this post. And Armed Prophet is such a nice guy, I'll even do it before Blog pays up.

P.S. Just on account of Blog's obstinacy, I've decided to ruin everyone's day and link to this.

P.P.S. Missing links now instated. But if the third one doesn't work, just click on the comments attending the second.

JUST THIS BLOGGER'S GUESS

If Armed Prophet didn't know any better -- and I know that I don't -- I'd say the shamed, too-clever-by-half TNR story inventor Stephen Glass has resurfaced at the New Yorker under the pseudonym Alicia DeSantis.

(Hat tip: Sullivan, who of course knew Glass well and should maybe be suspicious.)

HEY, NO FAIR!

Before you ask, yes, I did read a large swath of the Washington Post this morning. So anyway...

Today E.J. Dionne relies on a too-easy explanation employed oftent by liberals to account for why the Republicans have been so dominant these past three years: the Democrats are making a mistake by playing fair.

The battle over a Medicare prescription drug benefit proves that Republicans are ruthless and determined and that Democrats are divided and hapless. Republicans have changed the rules in Washington, but some Democrats still pretend to be living in the good old days.

Yes, that's surely it. The Democrats are just too nice. That's explains why all of Bush's judicial appointees have been approved, why the Senate never changed hands before the midterm elections, how Congress passed an ideal Medicare bill, and why no Dems have made slanderous charges against the White House. That must be it.

MORE NIXON!

I knew I wasn't just imagining things. Now here's Dana Milbank, with an incredibly weak comparison of George W. Bush and Richard M. Nixon.

Milbank spends nearly half of the piece admitting to the considerable differences the two administrations' substance and style. And the other half explains White House policies and traditions that most every president since Nixon has followed.

If the goal was to link Bush to Nixon unfavorably -- which I wouldn't put past Milbank -- then he's failed. But I'm inclined to be more charitable, and simply assume Milbank had to file a story and couldn't think of anything to write.

GETSALLTHE?

Is that you?

OH YEAH, THE DEBATE...

Thought I'd forgotten about that? Me too. Armed Prophet did indeed watch the Brokaw-brokered Dem debate on MSNBC last night, although a combination of Nyquil and monotony caused me to drift in and out of consciousness. It really was that boring, with a couple of exceptions. One, mentioned this morning by Mickey Kaus involved John Kerry trying to get substantial with Howard Dean. But what Kaus misses is that Dean -- to his credit -- rebuffed Kerry's constant harping on whether "slow the rate of growth in Medicare" by replying:

Well, I'd like to slow the rate of growth of this debate, if I could...

Audience erupts with laughter. End of story. Even if Kerry had Dean dead to rights on the issue, it was all over the moment Kerry let the laugh interrupt him. Oh, he tried to get back on his feet with one more attempt, but by then he just seemed a nag. It's the same thing Arnold did when [a woman so annoying I cannot even bring myself to type her name] tried to get him on his "woman problem" -- he turned it into a joke. And when she laughed along with the rest of the crowd, the issue was dead.

But the only truly interesting exchange was between Brokaw and Al Sharpton, when the awfully-young-to-be-retiring NBC anchor pressed the did-you-know-he's-the-youngest-Dem-candidate Sharpton on the infamous Tawana Brawley hoax, which both rocketed Sharpton to prominence but also tarnished his credibility.

As a reply to the question, it was pretty weak, and kudos to Brokaw for pressing again for a better answer. Here's how it went, courtesy of the Washington Post.

BROKAW: Reverend Sharpton, Howard Dean did apologize for his remarks about the Confederate flag on the back of a pickup truck. But a lot of people who admire you and especially like your spirit in engagements like this are wondering whether you're ever going to apologize for your role in the Tawana Brawley case.



SHARPTON: Absolutely. If -- I would apologize if I felt I was wrong.



I think if you think you're right, you pay the penalty for it and you stand there. If Governor Dean thought he was right, he should have taken whatever that was. He, after some assessment, felt he was wrong. I don't feel I was wrong. I've stood up on cases, one was the Central Park jogger case -- 13 years later people felt I was right.



But I think also, Tom, to compare a case of a young lady telling us something that we believe with a Confederate flag that represented a society's commitment to lynching, to rape, to murder and treason, I think that's a stretch even for Tom Brokaw.



(LAUGHTER)



BROKAW: I wasn't making -- I wasn't making a judgment. What I was saying was that people, once there was a body of evidence in the Tawana Brawley case...



SHARPTON: Well, there was a body of evidence the jury didn't believe. I just cited you a body of evidence where people went to jail eight years and it was overturned.



We're not talking about a case when we're talking about the Confederacy. We're talking about people that were committed against a race of people.



I may have a disagreement on any case. Right now a lot of people think O.J. Simpson was guilty. The jury said he wasn't. Should they apologize? I mean, you're covering right now a lot of cases.



So to try and make a case something and equate that with what we talked about -- when I see a pickup truck and Confederate flag, I see James Byrd dragged through Jasper, Texas. I'm not talking about a jury making a decision on a case.



You know, it's funny, a lot of people -- Jessica Lynch said something didn't happen to her, and this administration believes it. I believe in a girl that said something did happen to her. I'd like to have that debate with George Bush.



BROKAW: But that was a -- and we'll try to leave it at that.



(LAUGHTER)



SHARPTON: You're trying to come up with the next question.



BROKAW: No, no. There was -- in fact, it's undeniable that there was a racial component to the Tawana Brawley case.



SHARPTON: The girl told her story. And we believed her story and represent her story, and still do. But the racial implication of the case is, again, way away from what I debated Mr. Dean about.



SHARPTON: If, in fact, someone is trying to equate the two, I think that's even more of an insult to people that were victimized by the Confederacy. And I don't think any candidate in this race would try to act like those are two of the same, whatever their opinions may be of a case that I represented or not.



I've never represented a case that everybody believed in and everybody agreed with. And I'm willing to pay the penalty for what I believe. And I just want everybody up here to do the same thing, which is what I offered my good friend Brother Howard.



BROKAW: Thank you very much, Reverend Al Sharpton.

O.J. Simpson, James Byrd, Jessica Lynch and George Bush have what to do with Tawana Brawley? Nothing, obviously. It's quite a moment when the silver-tongued Sharpton gets thrown off his game, and congratulations to Brokaw for making it happen. Of course in the long run, it's just another victory for Al Sharpton, where he took time away from the candidates who are actually running a legitimate campaign for office.

THIS IS WHAT I'VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT!

For those readers who've been following the recent 100% increase in posts about the false promise of light rail and the hidden-in-plain sight benefits of regular old buses, you might be interested to see twhat the Washington Post's Lyndsey Layton wrote about that today:

Buses hold the greatest potential to improve mass transit with fewer dollars because bus systems are less expensive than rail projects. Modest investments go further.

That's just what Arlington is finding out a few blocks away from where Armed Prophet lives. Of course, I do ride the Metro rail, because it's only a block away. And also because I have no idea where the buses are headed. But as the story points out, that's being fixed. And it hasn't taken long for the benefits to show.

P.S. There's a small point in here that smart use of buses can even increase rail ridership -- which sounds like a good idea, and might be used by some cities with overground light rail (as a midway point on the way to eventually paving over the rail lines to create exclusive bus lines? Well, I can dream).

ARMED PROPHET IN RECOVERY

Hack, hack, sneeze. Hack, hack. Sneeze. Little by little, Armed Prophet is getting better. Not well enough yet to fashion a well-considered argument on many of the stories that are circulating about Washington and the country at large on this last work day before Turkey Day, but probably well enough to tag some half-considered blurbs onto links to said stories. A few are to come quite soon. More to come later. Then later, more still. Don't go far. In fact, you should probably just keep hitting reload until your plane back home leaves, or until you fall asleep, whichever comes second.

ARMED PROPHET, UNDER THE WEATHER DAY 4

Blarg. It's the cold-and-flu season again, and Armed Prophet is stricken. Whether it's a strong cold or a weak flu, I'm not really sure, but it's an awful feeling nonetheless. Nevertheless, I'll be sure to worsen my condition in a few hours when I tune into the latest Democratic debate, this one hosted by Tom Brokaw. But even the star power of Brokaw is unlikely to draw any more viewers than usual. How pointless are these debates? Republican consultant Mike Murphy points out the triviality of this media racket in his latest column for The Hotline this afternoon:

So, what if some foolhardy and poorly advised candidate were to bust up the Phony Debate Racket, by blowing off the silly second-tier debates and agreeing to only show up for one big debate with a big audience and a give and take format? I know somebody tried it recently and sure enough he got loudly hammered by a howling media chorus as a mistake prone idiot who had stupidly blown his campaign by "looking scared" and not playing their game. Then he got elected Governor of California.

Ha! Of course, Murphy doesn't supply the fact that he himself was Arnold's media adviser, but everyone who reads The Hotline pretty much already knows that. And it doesn't change the fact that he's right -- these debates are watched by so few as to distract from other things the candidates need to be doing, namely raising funds and doing the crucial retail politicking in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Even if it worsens my condition, I'll still tune in. But I'll likely be too sick afterward to offer much commentary.

DR. SEUSS MADE ME A LIBERAL!

Readers who know Armed Prophet also know I tend to chart my political journey as having begun at a point I term "liberal by default," based loosely on my background in liberalish Portland, Oregon and the overwhelmingly Democratic lean of my extended family.

Sure, Armed Prophet Sr. -- i.e., my dad -- is a Republican, but until I made my way rightward, we didn't talk much politics. (Though I do recall very early discussions of supply and demand, which sort of went over my head.)

In any case, I still wonder at what specifically put me on the lefthand-side to start off with. After all, even my glad-to-pay-taxes Democrat mother is a much more socially and culturally conservative than she'd ever admit.

Well, an article by John J. Miller in yesterday's edition of NRO helped solve part of the puzzle. The book in question is "The Butter Battle Book," which was published in 1984, as a response to Ronald Reagan's arms-building. Slightly older readers may have missed it, but I remember it fondly -- not least for the fantastical weapons the characters devise (okay, so there was always a bit of a hawk in me) -- and of it, Miller writes:

The story describes a conflict between the blue-suited Yooks, who prefer to eat their bread with the "butter side up," and orange-suited Zooks, who eat their bread with the "butter side down." The Yooks and Zooks then embark on a perilous arms race. They build ever more menacing weapons, from the Triple-Sling Jigger to the Eight-Nozzled, Elephant-Toted Boom-Blitz, and finally the Bitsy Big-Boy Boomeroo, which is basically a pea-sized weapon of mass destruction. At the ambiguous conclusion, which recalls "The Lady or the Tiger," both the Yooks and Zooks have the boomeroo and look ready to use it.



All of Seuss's other books, including The Lorax, end on a hopeful note. The Butter Battle Book, alone, does not. It is also a perfect emblem of the moral equivalence that neutered so many liberals during the Cold War: It assumes that the half-century conflict between the United States and the Soviet Union was based on nothing more meaningful than a dispute over how people prefer to butter their bread — as if Communism weren't a threat to liberty, but an eating preference.

Was I aware of any of this? Of course not. But it surely helped put the idea in my head -- as it surely helped millions of others who in recent days marched in Miami and (perhaps) London -- that war is always fought on frivolous grounds and that acquisition of better weapons technology is immoral. This today I can say is obviously not true. But there are many my age -- and of course, many who are older -- that would not agree. Now that I look back, "The Butter Battle Book" definitely had a hand in my early philosophical thinking -- I'd bet it did for others, too.

And it succeeded in that not least because it wasn't sold as propaganda. The subtext was buried just deep enough for me to grasp the concept, but not link it to the handful of minutes of "Firing Line" (speaking of NR...) I might have happened to catch between "3-2-1 Contact" and "The Dukes of Hazzard." Subversive? You bet. (Actually, that's the theme of the Miller piece.)

So, should Armed Prophet let his kids -- not a reality that should come to pass anytime soon, I expect -- read the Seuss books? Miller advises:

I say read him, because most of his books are incredible fun — but also choose wisely.

Agreed. But wait -- I'm pretty sure that I ran into "Butter Battle" first at my school library. At a public school library! Argh! Speaking of how I once became a liberal! As Anthony Hopkins says in "Nixon," if "you open that scab, you'll uncover a lot of pus."

I'm flummoxed. Better go back to watching football. Nixon would approve.

NIXON TODAY?

Aye. On this, the fortieth anniversary of JFK's assasination, another major political figure of the modern era seems to be gaining mention: Richard Nixon. Over at Slate, there is a discussion of the various attempts to link the 37th president to the death of the 35th -- though it contains no mention of Oliver Stone's attempt to do just that, in "Nixon."

Then, over at The Nation -- which I am aware, nobody but me ever looks at anymore -- there is a useful book review of a new tome by... the author of the Slate piece linked above.

Okay, maybe I'm exaggerating. But it got me to look up an old Newsweek cover story from 1986 about Nixon's rehabilitation in the public mind and in his standing with the powerful. The magazine dubbed him the "Sage of Saddle River," after the upscale New Jersey community to which he and Pat had by then relocated. Among the more amusing anecdotes:

He isn't much of a presence in Saddle River; he visited a second-grade class once, talking civics and doing what has become his international standard number: after asking whether any child present has a birthday today, he sits down at the piano and thumps out "Happy Birthday." But after one fumbling Halloween spent handing out candy, then dimes, then in desperation presidential-seal pens and finally calling cards, any more trick-or-treating at the Nixons' has been discouraged.

And on a more surreal note:

He accepts no honorariums for his occasional speeches, saying that leaves him free to pick and choose among the 400 or so invitations he gets each year. (The oddest recent one: French film director Jean-Luc Godard asked him to talk for three hours with Norman Mailer about power, for a segment of a surrealistic version of "King Lear.")

I have no idea if Nixon actually ever agreed to that meeting, though I think it somewhat doubtful. Also, this is pretty interesting:

He is still regarded as one of the party's premier handicappers. His rare mistakes tell more about the flaws in other people's judgment than his own: early in 1984, for instance, he picked Mondale for the Democratic nomination and predicted that he would consider a woman for vice president. But Nixon said Mondale would reject that idea, since a woman on the ticket would help Republicans but not Democrats, and would choose Gary Hart for veep. That team, he said, would run a close race against Reagan. Months later, many Democrats ruefully wished they had come to the same conclusion.

If true, that prescience is remarkable.

Okay, that's all. You may go back to watching football now. That's what I plan to do.

P.S. But seriously, how can Armed Prophet be thinking about Nixon on November 22nd? Because I've earned it; already today I've read two chapters from Kennedy's "Profiles in Courage," and just rounded the halfway point. And what have you done?

THANKS FOR THE TIP, BLOG

Do I win the five dollars?

HOW IS ARMED PROPHET FEELING TODAY?

Not well. Not well at all, I can tell you. In fact, each word I type is more taxing than the last, each thought more exhausting than the one that preceded it. So, I think I'll go lie on the couch and take in the History Channel's JFK Week.

WHERE ARE ALL THE POSTS TODAY?

Oh, they're around here somewhere...

UPDATE, 10PM EST -- No, I guess not.

THE LITTLE ENGINE THAT WON'T

Last week during the Senate talkathon, Armed Prophet launched into a digressive discursion on the ruinous illusion of light rail. Yet another system is slated to open shortly along the Trenton-Camden corridor, just a couple hours north of here. As I remarked then, I like trains. Everyone does. Who -- other than celebrators of Chanukah and the children of committed atheists -- didn't have a Lionel train set underneath the Christmas tree? And who doesn't enjoy those Union Pacific commercials narrated by Sam Elliott? Trains are romantic, recalling a mythical version of this country's westward expansion, even when you're hopping from downtown to the sports arena.

A few years ago, John Charles of the Cascade Policy Institute in Portland, explained this enthusiasm to Armed Prophet as the "Lionel effect." When the subject of light rail comes up, everyone's inner child yelps for joy and thinks nothing of issuing tens of millions in bonds and asking for hundreds of millions more from the federal government. And in this morning's Trenton Times, columnist Harry Blaze -- who looks by his picture to be a seventy-year-old child -- releases himself to just this effect. Here's a few snippets from today's column:

Regular readers of this corner probably are aware that I'm what some folks refer to as a "railroad nut." ... I often wonder what it must have been like when railroads were king - before broad highways and big trucks and widespread auto ownership relegated rails to an afterthought for most folks. ... It looked like the kind of station you might want for that Christmas tree "choo-choo." ... I have a few photos of the Battle Monument terminal. One shows red tulips planted out front. Another shows a single, self-powered diesel rail car -- usually referred to as a "doodlebug" -- leaving the station. ... I can remember, shortly after World War II, seeing a small passenger shelter just off South Broad Street in Yardville. The freight house still stands in Robbinsville. ... There were trolley lines with stations but they were gone before I came along.

All of which is supposedly, apparently, purportedly to explain why:

I look forward with great expectations to the startup of NJ Transit's Trenton-Camden route.

Well, best of luck to you and your billion-dollar boondoggle.

UNDERESTIMATING ARNOLD

One would think smart writers would have learned to stop "misunderestimating" the new governor of California. Well, that's exactly what Gregg Easterbrook did yesterday when he wrote:

Schwarzenegger says he wants total, revolutionary change in California government. Wasn't Jesse Ventura going to totally, revolutionarily change Minnesota government? Ventura lost interest fast when he realized that government is work and causing change is hard; by the end of his term, Jesse seemed more interested in doing XFL games than reporting to the office. Expect Schwarzenegger to hold a couple of big, flashy events where he demands instant, total change. Then, realizing government is work and causing change is hard, Arnold will start making personal appearances and rarely reporting to the office.

Pardon me? The Body and The Terminator share (obviously) a background in showbiz and the promise of big change. But Easterbrook is surely perceptive enough to notice that the similarities end there. Schwarzenegger is gregarious where Ventura is prickly. Schwarzenegger courts the media where Ventura tried to avoid it. Schwarzenegger understands the importance of having two major parties, Ventura believed he could get bills through without them. Schwarzenegger plays the political game like a pro, Ventura tried to avoid it.

What, pray tell, was Easterbrook getting at? The last time he made a careless generalization, he lost a pretty sweet gig at ESPN. He won't lose any jobs for carelessness here, but as much as I've been a fan of TMQ and Easterbrook's writing for The New Republic and Atlantic Monthly, Armed Prophet is beginning to think blogging just isn't his medium.

KILL PUBLIC FINANCING

If ever there was evidence that in electoral politics, money follows support not vice versa, then Howard Dean is that evidence. And to put a finer point on it, if one wanted proof that candidates without substantial financial backing before the race begins can indeed attract that all-important support, then Howard Dean is proof of that as well.

Public financing of campaigns and the sort of campaign finance "reform" favored by John McCain and others has always been morally and Constitutionally questionable, but in the internet fundraising era, it is also more irrelevant than ever. This morning David Broder, that doyenne of clean politics, says basically that:

So what exactly has been lost if the presidential nomination campaigns are stripped of their element of public financing? Not that much. Public financing has two rationales -- reducing corruption or the appearance of corruption and equalizing the playing field among the contenders. The current system, which offers federal matching funds for up to $250 of individual contributions, provides a healthy incentive for seeking and giving small contributions -- and a reward that could be almost one-third of the $45 million allowed for the primary campaign. ... You cannot equalize financial support in the primaries any more than you can equalize speaking ability, organizational skills or television appeal.

Armed Prophet likes the last point especially. Trying to pretend that the playing field can be leveled is ridiculous, almost Marxian. Everyone is politically equal in terms of rights protected, but no one can pretend that everybody will start from the same place. Not in political talent, not in political capital, not in real capital.

It's sometimes said that only Republicans can raise taxes, not unlike "only Nixon could go to China." That reality, viz. political credibility, means that only Democrats can kill public financing of presidential campaigns. If Howard Dean contributes nothing else to the overall political future of this country -- and Armed Prophet sincerely hopes he doesn't -- then his appearance on the national stage was welcome all the same.

SHOULDN'T YOU HAVE WRITTEN THIS IN OCTOBER 2001?

Scripps Howard columnist Paul Campos asks an awkward question with his column today. And I mean "awkward" both politcally and gramatically. The interrogative headline:

Is democracy in the Mideast worth young man's death?

Let's go in reverse order:

Gramatically: Headlines are always like this, dropping words that allow intentional misreadings. James Taranto makes comedic hay of this on almost a daily basis. The above headline begs the question: This young man? Or any young man?

Politically: Whichever young man we are talking about -- Campos is telling the unfortunate story of one American soldier, Rayshawn Johnson -- the obvious answer is nevertheless, yes. Even though I would not like to explain this to his mother, yes it is worth sacrificing lives to bring peace and prosperity to the Middle East. Democracy in the Middle East means no more 9/11s. And in the long run, it means fewer dead Muslim men and fewer grieving mothers.

Really, the argument that no casualties are acceptable in this undertaking is pure fantasy. How hard is that to grasp? Too difficult for Campos, apparently:

According to the Bush administration, Johnson died ... so that democracy might be brought to the Middle East. Even if we forced ourselves to believe this incredible claim, it would still be the case that the cause of bringing democracy to the Middle East is not worth the life of one American soldier.

Whatever, Paul Campos. I won't try to change your mind.

OOOH, PRETTY!

Armed Prophet isn't sure just when the newofficial web site for the California governor went up, but it's pretty striking. And Maria even has her own site.

Of some small disappointment to us longtime fans, it is a considerable understatement to observe that Arnold's not terribly obscure career as an action hero is given the short shrift on his biography page.

And so far, the page for the governor's speeches is empty, although CNN has the full text of his inaugural speech. Instead of promising to pump up Sacramento, he quoted JFK. The closest he got to anything humorously self-referential was this passage:

There is a massive weight we must lift off our state. Alone, I cannot lift it. But together, we can.

And for those of us fond of Ronald Reagan and the fight against communism, this bit was particularly good:

President Reagan spoke of America as the shining city on a hill. I see California as the golden dream by the sea. Perhaps some think that this is fanciful and poetic, but to an immigrant like me, who as a boy saw the Soviet tanks rolling through the streets of Austria, to someone like me who came here with absolutely nothing and gained absolutely everything, it is not fanciful to see California as the golden dream.

If you'd like to tell Arnold yourself just how good that was, you can now email him -- well, one of his staffers -- at governor@governor.ca.gov.

SMOOSH!

Is this the consequence of too much plastic surgery?

TIM NOAH IS OUT OF CONTROL

A few weeks back, Armed Prophet called out Slate writer Tim Noah's confused and confusing argument about how only Republicans want Hillary Clinton to run in 2004. He never properly demonstrated that conservatives want her to run -- which is what he alleges -- only that they talk about it -- which some do. At first I couldn't tell what he was trying to do, because his "Chatterbox" column occasionally has a flip, sarcastic tone, as Armed Prophet sometimes does. But after his latest installment, I've concluded that he's being sincerely disingenuous. He doesn't believe it himself, but he wants the reader to buy it. And he's either losing his mind, or losing his ability to sell this argument. He tries:

Hillary Clinton's under-the-radar presidential candidacy -- which, as Chatterbox observed previously, was invented by conservative commentators to fulfill various practical and psychological imperatives and has no reality outside their imaginations -- has ended. That's a relief!

Why over? Because conservative New York Times columnist William Safire recently argued the recovering economy makes it less likely. And that's probably true, to the extent that Hillary ever was considering it.

But Noah's contention that the idea was "invented" by conservatives withstands no scrutiny. After all, it should never be crazy to think that the most famous elected Democrat in the country, might consider running for president at the next opportunity. Back before the energy crisis, in 2001, Gray Davis' name was being thrown around, too. Simply by virtue of heing California's governor, he was a contender. As a New York Senator and wife of a former president, a Hillary candidacy for '04 may be improbable, but not impossible to imagine.

And, what of his his apparently sincere argument tha the campaign "has no reality outside their imaginantions?" Oops! Spoke too soon! Mere hours after Noah posted his short article, Newsweek's Howard Fineman -- definitely not a conservative -- posted to the MSNBC page a brief column quoting a close "friend and adviser" of Hillary, explaining one possible scenario whereby she would run in 2004:

The scenario, as sketched by this hard-boiled insider, calls for Clinton to make an entrance as healer and unifier at the end of the primary season in May or June in the unlikely—but not impossible—event that none of the existing contenders has amassed a majority of the convention delegates. "You'd have to have Howard Dean not wrapping it up, and being an angry, wounded front runner," this adviser said. "You'd have to have two of the other challengers tearing each other apart in primary after primary. Then Hillary could come in, well in advance of the convention, and say, "Look, somebody has to save the party'."

It's far-fetched, yes -- but it's not the invention of a Republican, is it?

As of noontime on Monday, no correction has been posted, no amendation, nothing. So what gives? Armed Prophet figures he's just trying to be a pain. If anything's for certain, it's an attempt to mock conservatives. Unfortunately for him, he just doesn't have enough to go on and still do it properly. Neverthless, part four will surely appear before long.

P.S. You may also have seen this item on Andrew Sullivan's blog last week.

P.P.S. For further evidence of Slate's ever-leftward drift, in the story linked here, writer Daniel Gross learns -- gasp! -- rich people are sometimes liberal!

ARMED PROPHET'S "FILIBUSTER" WRAP-UP

Finally, Armed Prophet brings you -- as briefly as I can -- my awards for the best performances of last week's 39+ hour "filibuster" talkathon:

   BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

No surprise to anyone who followed this blog's coverage, RICK SANTORUM of Pennsylvania, stood head and shoulders above the rest. He overturned inkwells. He quoted "Animal Farm." He ranted, he raved, he mesmerized. He was so good even, that Jon Stewart abandoned the rest of the media's relentless non-coverage to take a awipe at him. Is there any honor?



   Runner-Up

MARY LANDRIEU was up there all by herself on Thursday night, facing down Orrin Hatch and a half-dozen Republicans. Landrieu managed to invoke Rosa Parks, brought up the fact that George W. Bush didn't win the popular vote, and when asked to yield the floor, shouted: "I will not yield! I will not! I will not yield the floor!" Armed Prophet approves.




   BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

ROBERT CARO made no personal appearances on the Senate floor, but nobody -- save judges or politicians -- were mentioned as many times on the floor as Caro, the historian. When his prodigious biography of LBJ's Senate years, "Master of the Senate" came out in the first half of '02, it was pretty popular -- everyone on the Hill had to read it, or at least be seen with a copy. Last week, the book enjoyep://elfit.signmyguestbook.com target=_blank>guestbook
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UPDATE -- JANUARY 13, 2005

What happened to this post? I haven't the foggiest idea. I just noticed it was screwed up while going through putting together my final post for the blog. If I ever find the original text in a file -- if such a file even exists -- then I will add it to this page. Otherwise, I'm afraid it's lost and gone forever ... dreadful sorry, Clementine.

ARE YOU WATCHING?

The inauguration of Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger begins momentarily. Choose your favorite cable news channel.

EXPERIENCING TECHNICAL DIFFICULTIES

Armed Prophet's departing roommate unexpectedly departed with the modem. Curses!

Please stand by.

CHANGE OF PLANS!

What is a lie, really? Sure, Armed Prophet intended to post a comprehensive final summary of the 39+ hour debate that ended this morning. And when I wrote of my intention to post such a summary, I was being honest, right?

But wasn't Armed Prophet aware of the fact that I'd gone a great number of hours over three or so days with not much more than seven hours sleep? And didn't I know the consequences that would catch up with me by Friday afternoon?

In a word: Mmmaybe.

So really, what is a lie, exactly? When it's the last night in the District for my friend, colleague and roommate? And of course, the last night for drinking, guzzling and for general carousing? Seriously, give me a break. If you want to call it a lie, go ahead. I can't stop you.

P.S. In any case, did you see Rick Santorum's Friday morning Bid For Thurmondian Greatness? Or Mary Landrieu's Thursday night Heroic Last Stand? There is much to be said about all that -- but at present moment, Armed Prophet is too drunk to say it.

P.P.S. Plus, I said I'd explain why I was absent for the early hours of the Senate Talkathon. It's a good story. And it even turned out to have a "filibuster" angle!

Be patient. Armed Prophet needs some sleep. Come back later, maybe I'll have something to say once I close my eyes for awhile and the tracers decice to quit.

JOURNALISTIC MALPRACTICE

AP headline from this morning:

Republicans expect to lose filibuster

If you just read the headlines -- or if you did but didn't have some of the best summarizers on the planet, like President Bush -- you might think the Capitol talkathon was a real, live filibuster. You might imagine that the Republicans would be railing on about the greatness of the filibuster process. And you would be imagining the exact opposite of what happened.

P.S. Okay, so maybe the headline refers to the "actual" ongoing filibuster against the judges, not the talkathon that's now concluded. If so, then that's misleading. When all that the few newspaper readers who got as far as A32 or who-knows-how-far-back it was buried know is that the Senate has been up all night talking, even fewer are going to be able to separate the "filibuster" from the "'filibuster.'"

WELL, GUESS WHAT HAPPENED?

That's right -- nothing! Well, nothing so utterly predictable that even a politician couldn't see it coming.

Bill Frist and Tom Daschle, AWOL throughout the previous 39 hours, decided to show up at the relatively late hour of nine. With the scheduled debate time finally over, they had one last go at it. Armed Prophet didn't bother to listen. Plus, I was busy.

Then at about 9:45, acting Senate President Gordon Smith called for the cloture vote on three of the judges -- the already officially-blocked Priscilla Owen and Carolyn Kuhl plus as-good-as-filibustered Janice Rogers Brown.

When the vote began, there were four blocked nominees; when it ended, there were five. If anything came out of this, it was that: the Democrats filibustered another judicial nominee. Way to go, Senate GOP leadership!

P.S. A longer summary, with the talkathon's winners, losers and special awards will be along later today. Stay tuned.

MORNING HIATUS

Alas, it's time for Armed Prophet to start doing things that ensure bi-weekly paychecks get deposited into my bank account. But I'll keep an eye on the Senate floor, and keep track of the developments (if any) for later posting. Unless Frist & Co. decide to keep this going another six, nine or 96 hours, this will be over by 9AM EST, well before Armed Prophet will be free to blog again. But I will return.

P.S. Did you see that Santorumizing? He led the floor for a good while going into the five 'oclock hour. This morning's sermon didn't quite live up to the dudgeon of 24 hours ago, but its dudgeosity cannot be questioned. The best part was when he turned the inkwell upside down and dust fell out onto the lectern. Or maybe it was when he compared liberal special interests to "hidden gases" (don't ask). Either way, he came through in style.

UPDATE -- He's back again here in the six o'clock hour, and he's chewing up the scenery!

SANTORUM RETURNS!

Just a few moments ago, at 4:28 AM EST, the Pennsylvania Preacher joined Sam Brownback in colloquy. Yes! Almost immediately, at 4:30, the majority's time expired. No!

So now we're stuck with the positively flamboyant Jack Reed (no, not the Portland-born commie journalist from Warren Beatty's "Reds," -- at least, I don't think) for at least a half-hour or so.

Come on, United States Senate. We put you there! (Although Armed Prophet was personally uninvolved in getting Santorum, Brownback or Reed there.) Give the people what they want!

FLOG™ LENDS A HAND

Noting Armed Prophet's mortality and time zone, Dan flogs a couple of notable moments I wasn't able to cover, including Carl Levin's "combover meltdown":

At first shot in profile, Levin displayed an enormous, errant tangle of gray hair at the back of his balding head that was clearly intended to be combed over the dome. Whoever was running the production office at CSPAN-2 quickly switched to a head-on camera angle. Despite this effort at censorship, the unholy knot of misplaced hair at the back of Levin's head was never kept completely off-camera.

Yikes. I believe it. Thanks, Dan!

ALL RIGHT, ALL RIGHT

One last post for the evening. I may have a couple of beers in me, but I must say: This is one of the stupidest things I've ever had the pleasure of experiencing.

More soon.

P.S. Judging by sheer performance, Louisiana Democrat Mary Landrieu is running a strong second to Rick Santorum. But the Nor'Wester blowing past my sliding glass door (still going!) is tight at third.

P.P.S. This "begs the question," which will last longer -- the "filibuster" or the storm?

ADVICE WELL-TAKEN

Ben Domenech, a Hill staffer on the Republican side whom Armed Prophet is about two-thirds sure he's met at one point but can't be certain, had this to say -- upon retiring for the evening -- about the ever-ongoing talkathon:

I thought to myself: surely the greatest technological advancement of the modern age is a device which allows one to, in an instant, render Barbara Boxer absolutely silent. Yes, my friends: the Mute button. Use it. Cherish it. And silence the shrill harpies of intellectual putrescence.

Sound advice, pun half-heartedly considered, then accepted.

The debate at present is a Hatch-fest, and while he's having a just dandy time juggling entreaties from John Warner, Wayne Allard, onetime Singing Senator Larry Craig and a cast of thousands a few more, Armed Prophet is too tired to be much entertained. The Mute button it is.

I'll see what I can do to get up for the early craziness, but no promises. Besides, you'll all be asleep then. Check in later to find out what happened.

ARMED PROPHET LEARNS A NEW USAGE!

All through today I've seen senators to whom the floor has been yielded asking of the senator leading the floor debate insipid, obvious questions that don't need to be asked. Well! Armed Prophet's roommate has just informed me that the word "colloquy" -- a word Armed Prophet has always associated with scholarly dialogue -- has a special meaning in deliberative bodies with arcane rules that perpetuate pointless pontificating.

The best definition of this new usage is thus:

When one senator asks another of his or her own party a question that he or she already knows the answer to just to have a particular argument entered into the record.

Within the past few minutes, Susan Collins, Republican of Maine, just asked Utah Republican Orrin Hatch a series of questions to stupid to be believed. But not too stupid to be blogged! Collins asked, do you know the definition of the word "filibuster"? Hatch responded:

I was hoping somebody would ask that. We even have a chart prepared.

What luck! Truly, the stars have come into alignment.

NEWS FLASH -- FLOOR DEBATE TO CONTINUE FOR ALL PERPETUITY

When the Senate Republicans filed to schedule the debate that's now been going for 27 hours at this point, 30 were scheduled. But now the AP is reporting that the GOP has extended the debate until 9AM EST Friday morning.

Whooooo!!

Actually, Armed Prophet heard word of this from a good source almost 9 hours ago now, but I didn't believe it, shrugged it off, and didn't blog it. I should have, but hey -- I'm only one blogger.

Needless to say, Armed Prophet cannot provide literal around-the-clock coverage of the ongoing "filibuster," especially when I got up very early -- in vain -- to try covering the night's wackiest moments.

But I will try to get up a tad earlier than usual, and I'll keep an eye on it through the morning. I'll be working through the (currently scheduled) end of debate, but at the time it does end -- if it ends -- I will then try to render a final decision, taking into consideration tonight's lineup, but also tomorrow's and the final outcome (which is still not in question).

P.S. This doesn't mean I'm signing off. More filiblustering to come!

THEN AGAIN...

Armed Prophet was pretty impressed with Pat Leahy. Most of the senators have been content to stand by the lectern, but Leahy stormed out from behind, swinging his arms, bellowing about the Republicans:

Lordy, lordy, lordy ... It's a Niagra Falls of tears. Crocodile tears!

All right, not bad. But it won't affect my final judgment.

P.S. Nor my "judgement."

WHO'S IN THE LINEUP?

By that I mean, who will each party put on the floor in the last four hours of debate? Ted Kennedy was on just a little while ago, and Hillary Clinton was there about noontime. And Trent Lott -- not in the leadership, but still a weighty figure -- was on the floor at about 4PM.

Otherwise, so far today it's all been freshmen like Lindsey Graham, middleweights like Paul Sarbanes, and respectable old hats like Pete Domenici. (Chuck Grassley was just up there, and yes I know he's powerful, but for one reason or another I don't think he counts.)

This leads Armed Prophet to believe -- or at least hope -- that both parties have saved their most interesting speakers for prime time on the East Coast.

On the Dem side: Really, where's Joe Biden? Too good for this ugliness, I think. How about Fritz Hollings? Well, he's pretty old. Or Robert Byrd? He's old too, but that guy's famous for rambling!

On the GOP side: Where's John McCain right now? Everybody would tune in! What about Orrin Hatch This is his fight, after all. But seriously -- where on Earth is Bill Frist?! It's his fault everybody's sleep schedule got all screwed up, after all.

Anyway, they could bring a few previous speakers back. Here's Armed Prophet's ideal lineup for the coming four-and-a-half hours, assuming they can get through 11 speakers in the past four hours:

• Mitch McConnell -- that guy's good


• Dianne Feinstein


• Russ Feingold -- the libs will love it


• Jim Jeffords -- why not?


• Hillary, again


• Kennedy, again


• Bill Frist -- he owes us


• Tom Daschle -- come on, you're following Frist!


• Bobby Byrd -- a must!


• John McCain and...


• Rick Santorum

Of course Rick Santorum! Who better to close with? Fourteen hours ago, while Washington slept, Moscow imprisoned another eighteen oligarchs, the Japanese were crowding into subway cars at 1000 pounds-per-square inch and Los Angelenos were waking up to yet another day of relentless, perpetual apocalypse, The Santorumator was holding forth over an empty Senate chamber like Martin Luther King, Jr. on the steps of the Lincoln Memorial before tens of thousands.

Santorum, before a television crowd of maybe a few thousand settle-for-anything speed addicts and educated graveyard shifters, orated:

This is the first time... in the HISTORY... of this Great Body... that the Judicial Process... has been FILIBUSTERED! by a minority of the Senate.

I'm not sure I can quite convey the majesty of his address, but I assure you it was really something.

So there's my scorecard. In the end, I will judge the success of this "filibuster" by the quality of the speakers the two parties throw at us before it's over.

P.S. At 7:45, the Dems did bring out Pat Leahy the ranking Democrat on the Senate Judiciary Committee. But he's not on my list, even though thanks to Howard Dean, Vermont is getting pretty hot these days...

THE BIG PICTURE

The Wall Street Journal's James Taranto blogged earlier today, only half-jokingly:

You've gotta love these wacky Democratic talking points. As GOP senators are holding a 30-hour debate calling attention to the Dems' use of parliamentary maneuvers to prevent the Senate from voting on certain judicial nominees, the Democrats are offering the defense that they're only a tiny bit obstructionist...



"Despite the fact that the Senate has confirmed 168 of his nominees, the right wing is hopping mad that we've blocked just 4 of the most hard-core ideologues," says an e-mail we received yesterday from the Angry Left outfit MoveOn.org.



Well, how about this: We'll stop calling the Democrats obstructionists when these guys stop complaining about Iraq. President Bush has invaded only two countries, Iraq and Afghanistan, both of which were ruled by ideologues even harder-core than Priscilla Owen. That means there are 189 countries Bush hasn't invaded. He should get to invade at least two or three more before anyone calls him an imperialist or war monger.

As Glenn Reynolds likes to say... Indeed.

HOW MANY ON THE FLOOR?

I consulted with my roommate, a former staffer to a senator from California (who will probably squeak through another re-election next year unless Condi Rice decides to run), and he tells me there are at least five but almost surely no more than six or seven senators in the Senate chamber right now.

They would be:

• 1 Republican chairing the debate as Senate President, rotating every hour or two,


• 1 senator on speaking on the floor -- Daniel Akaka, Democrat of Hawaii, at the time I started writing this, now it's Dick Lugar, Republican of Indiana,


• 1 senator "on the other side of the aisle", depending on which party has the floor -- if there are no Republicans on the floor at any given time, the Democrats could close shop and all go home to sleep,


• 2 senators (or so) warming up, waiting their turn, or waiting for the next guy to show up so they can leave.

The rest are either on the campaign trail, in the green room down the street waiting to be interviewed by Chris Matthews, kicking back at their Georgetown mansions, or attending dinners around town.

Of course, there are perhaps a dozen or two others, such as the Senate clerk, a couple of stenographers, the parliamentarian, and a handful of the senators' top aides. But that's it.

Everybody else had something better to do.

ARE WE GETTING ANYWHERE?

In the last hour, Armed Prophet suggested with tongue in cheek that one of the judges might have some random chance of being spontaneously confirmed. Well, that isn't going to happen. But is the actual floor debate going anywhere?

Most of the Republicans' argument boils down to the fact that a minority is preventing the majority from getting along with business. Most of the Democrats' argument(s) boil(s) down to "we should be talking about something else." And that kind of subject matter isn't well-tailored for thirty hours nonstop. The Republicans just say this is all about the Dems satisfying their special interest groups. The Democrats would be remiss if they didn't argue the same. Well, I haven't heard it, but as we're approaching the end of a full day of partisan sniping, I'll give them the benefit of the doubt.

Throughout the last 23 and one-half hourse, the GOP would by their actions appear to be objectively claiming that this is the most pressing issue in the country today (but it's not asbestos, either). Likewise, the Dems are claiming to believe that the economic recession can only continue for the foreseeable future. Ho hum.

About all that's really interesting are the Democrats quoting Republicans of Senate history objecting to Democrats' past filibusters (they did all the famous ones), while Republicans quote more recent Senate Democrats' Clinton-era arguments that every nominee should get a vote. Bonus interesting tidbit: at least a couple of Republicans so far have made disapproving mention of Strom Thurmond's 1957 Civil Rights Act filibuster. And hey, good of them to do so -- but they wouldn't have done so a year ago.

For the Republicans, this is an exercise in futility. Bill Frist, who took over from Trent Lott as leader of the Senate GOP not quite a year ago, should count this as a defeat. And it's all the more pathetic because it's entirely his own doing. (Yes, Orrin Hatch and Rick Santorum probably egged him on about it, but the buck still stops with him). Then again, how big of a mistake can this be? It's sure to pump up fundraising from the die-hards and as I've written already, the public at large is oblivious.

Meanwhile, the Democrats aren't doing any better -- just reciting talking points as if the senators present (no way to tell how many, as the camera turns away, but bet your marbles it isn't many). Worse for them, if the public does take anything from this story, it's that Washington politicians are up to "business as usual," and though they didn't call this ridiculous session, that little fact will escape most all. And anyway, it's their obstructionism that precipitated (if not initiated) this talkathon, so they're just as implicated. (Oh, but their fundraising well get a shot in the arm as well.)

Armed Prophet's prediction, with about six hours to go: this one's going to be a wash. Barring spontaneous confirmation, that is.

A COINAGE?

Earlier this afternoon Armed Prophet tentatively suggested "filiblogging" as a term for what I'm doing today, but I don't really like it. Instead, I'd like to propose another new term: filiblustering!

P.S. Given the weather outside, that's all the more apropos. The winds have only strengthened over the past couple hours; I'd bet some gusts have got up to 70 mph or more. No trees have been knocked down yet, but there were at least three times as many leaves on the trees outside my place this time yesterday.

P.P.S. I seem to be getting electric shocks nearly every time I touch a piece of metal right now. Sure, there's gale-force levels of kinetic energy surging through Northern Virginia right now, but is that really a plausible explanation? Perhaps someone with better knowledge of real-world physics can enlighten me...

JUST HOW IRRELEVANT IS THIS "FILIBUSTER"?

Matt Drudge's web site, visited over 8 million times in the last 24 hours alone (not necessarily unique users, though), has exactly zero links to any news stories about the ongoing talkathon. Not one. And though I've only visited his site a couple of times since yesterday afternoon, I'd wager he hasn't bothered posting anything about this.

Which makes Trent Lott's assertion a minute ago that "the American people" know there's something "not quite right" about the fact that there were zero judicial nominees during Clinton's time in office but four since Bush took office, or that there have been 214 years since the Judiciary Act was passed without a judge being filibustered, etc.,is ridiculous because no one is watching. And no one cares. As I quoted from Gregg Easterbrook in a post last night, people are going to march in the street over cloture?

I suppose it's likely that C-SPAN 2 has got a slight boost in ratings over the past twenty-two hours, but compared to NBC's viewership -- scratch that, CBS's view... no UPN's viewership C-SPAN is a mighty unpopular channel. And that's not hard to understand -- the number of people curious about what's happening on the floor of the House or Senate at any given time. I know plenty of intelligent people who care not a whit what congress is doing (in general), and not all of them fierce anti-government libertarians (though some are).

Nobody's watching. Wait a minute, check that -- Armed Prophet is!

IS IT WORKING YET?

Armed Prophet went downstairs to buy a soda. Did I miss anything? Did they confirm any of the judges? Oh, I guess not.

Hmmm... but you don't think, maybe, that considering the laws of probability, that one of the judges -- Bill Pryor, maybe? -- might have been spontaneously confirmed?

I don't know, it might not be that implausible. Who'd have ever thought Jesse Ventura would become a governor? (As for Arnold, come on -- we all had an inkling when he was hanging out with Papa Bush on the campaign trail.)

So I don't know, maybe one of these judges will get confirmed. Byron Dorgan, Russ Feingold, Frank Lautenberg and... oh, let's say Bob Graham (plus maybe a few more -- I can't find the latest cloture vote count right now) could all be possessed by the ghosts of dead Republicans and vote for an up-and-down on the nominees.

Well, I'm just asking you not to rule it out.

OFF-TOPIC? THAT'S THE THING TO DO, YOU KNOW

If the great senators from the great states of where ever are allowed to babble on about their pet issues -- Patty Murray, unemployment benefits; Chris Dodd, asbestos (seriously) -- then allow Armed Prophet to digress as well:

When will people learn? Communism Light rail doesn't work. Everywhere, it's the same story, and New Jersey has been learning just what that means: Endless construction delays. Constantly revising back previous expectations. Frequently running over cost. Largely funded by federal pork. Raison d'construction shifted from satisfying transportation needs to being an anti-sprawl tool. And when it opens, just you watch: no one will ride the damned thing.

Look, Armed Prophet likes trains just as much as anyone else who ever obsessed over an HO set, but this has got to stop. There is only one thing for areas like Phoenix-Tucson, Denver, Santa Clara, Portland, Tacoma and now Trenton-Camden to do: pave over the lines and run buses on the lines.

ISABEL II?

It's almost that windy here today, with gusts up to 50 mph, and in fact has been since last night. (Maybe God is angry about the marathon debate going on across town.)

It's windy up in New York, too. A former colleague of Armed Prophet's was set to fly down here today, and the plan was to go out for a few drinks this afternoon. But his flight got canceled, on account of the win.

Why, dear blog-reader, should you care about this? Because it means more "filibuster"-blogging! (Filiblogging?) First, Armed Prophet must eat. But then, more.

Meanwhile, I leave you with Wyoming's Craig Thomas, who just admitting to not knowing much about the federal judiciary, but hasn't let that stop him from using his time to speak.

WHAT I SAW AT THE "FILIBUSTER"

Armed Prophet will be in and out throughout the day, but my work for the job that allows me the luxury to write this blog cas concluded for the afternoon, and I'm free to turn back to the pointless-yet-amusing marathon-of-the-mouth on C-SPAN2.

So Blogger threw a wrench into my grand plans to be the insomniacs' first choice for debate coverage, but I was taking notes last night, from about 3AM to 6AM. Here's what I got:

Rick Santorum, who is probably passed out on a couch in the Senate cloak room right now, was the star of the show. Freshmen Republicans Norm Coleman and Jim Talent would yield to Santorum every ten minutes or so, who would then raise himself up to high dudgeon (whatever that means) and rail -- no, preach about how, never in the history of the Senate, has a federal court judge been filibustered. (Democrats would point out that's because, say, Clinton's controversial nominees never made it out of committee. Republicans would point out that this was because Republicans had that power by virtue of their electoral success, not abuse of the rules. And so it goes.) He gestured passionately, bringing his fists to his chest, swinging to address the chamber at left, and at right. Even without listening to what he was saying, you could tell he was having a great time.

And I didn't listen all that closely. Santorum spent some time talking about "a great body." At first I thought he was talking about Catherine Zeta-Jones, but then I realized he actually meant the U.S. Senate.

But there was more!

Democrat of New Jersey Jon Corzine, late of brokerage house Goldman Sachs, making one tortured analogy after another, finding all sorts of simile and metaphor to compare the judicial impasse to Wall Street.

Arkansas' Mark Pryor repeatedly comparing himself to Paul Harvey.

Ohio Republican Mike DeWine pointing out that the current time was 4:20.

Jim Talent explaining for everybody present why they're all there -- something to do with judges, you see...

Rick Santorum shouting some more.

And then there was Rhode Island Democrat Jack Reed, being his usual exciting self.

All of which left me thinking, where are the Singing Senators* (note: second from right is John Ashcroft) when you need them?

___

*L to R, that's Trent Lott, Larry Craig, John Ashcroft and Jim Jeffords, making this the only instance that I'm aware of where Jeffords was on the far right.

NON-"FILIBUSTER" POST

I know posting this will seem callous, but really, how ironic is this?

ARLEN SPECTER JUST MISPRONOUNCED "OREGON"

Now Armed Prophet really hopes Pat Toomey knocks him off in next year's GOP primary.

THANKS FOR NOTHING, BLOGGER

So Armed Prophet goes through the trouble of getting up early to watch the Senate talk circles around itself, and this is what I get when I go to Blogger's home page:

Due to planned maintenance, Blogger will be unavailable for a few hours starting at 11pm (Pacific) on Wednesday, November 12.



Thanks for your patience.

Thwarted! Fuck you, Blogger! Do not thank me for my "patience," because I'm not patient! I need into my account now!

Remind me to get Movable Type ASAP.

P.S. Obviously Blogger is now back in service. But also, it's time for work. Blast!

EARLY MORNING FILIBUSTING!

A little while ago, there was Dick Durbin again, quoting at length from Robert Caro's "Master of the Senate" -- the lengthy treatise on LBJ's congressional years -- on the "Great Compromise." That being, how it came to be why small states have more power in the Senate, and larger states ("the people") in the House of Representatives.

Now it's Norm Coleman (R-Minnesota) and Rick Santorum (R-Pennsylvania) doing a two-man show on why the Democrats have been wrong to oppose the recent tax cuts. Coleman asks:

Is the distinguished senator from the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania aware that job creation has increased?

Why as a matter of fact, he is! Who knew? Next, Coleman gives Santorum the floor for a little bit for a righteous speech deploring partisanship in the Senate... or at least the partisanship "on the other side of the aisle." Santorum is up there arguing that the Senate never made a partisan move until the Democrats moved against Bush's judges last year. He shouts, fists pounding:

I've voted for the worst judges!

Now there's a boast! Because he wanted to uphold the president's right to appoint judges, even Bill Clinton's, I think he means. And now Coleman himself is quoting from "Master of the Senate" approvingly. It is a popular book.

ARMED PROPHET RESTS... FOR NOW!

This is all standard debate stuff. Not too interesting. Armed Prophet is going to catch a few winks and resume blogging at about 4AM EST. By then, they should be getting wacky. After all, the potential for wackiness is why I started blogging about this in the first place.

Stay tuned...

SANTORUM IS SHOUTIN'!

With a big blue board with some number on it, courtesy of the Senate Printing and Graphics office. According to Armed Prophet's roommate, they are the the "nicest people you could ever meet." And they "never complain about anything." Armed Prophet wonders, even this week? He's sure not. During the ANWR debate, he thinks maybe -- because they had to do a lot of color photos. But this is nothing.

SO WHAT IS THIS ABOUT, ANYWAY?

The opposition to Janice Rogers Brown, it's seemed to Armed Prophet, has always been more about anti-conservative partisanship than any principled stand. Last month, Danimal wrote over at the Oregon Commentator's blog:

Brown's basically a flawless libertarian. Her interest in liberty is consistent in all areas of the law. It seems to me that the NAACP and various other groups are premising their opposition to Brown strictly on the fact that she is probably not a fan of affirmative action or other "progressive" approaches to racial issues. They're willing to stake their position on this, at the expense of her fantastically "liberal" treatment of civil liberties in the criminal realm.

She's a bit eccentric and irreverent in her opinions and her respect for precedent. While this is a liability in a lower appellate position, it could be an asset if she eventually finds her way to the Supreme Court, where precedent is a little less important and vibrant intellectual engagement a lot more. And let's face it: right now, Scalia's the only personality on the Court. It could use some livening up when one of those octogenarians decides to move on.

He has some less-favorable things to say about her, but nothing that would disqualify her from the federal court.

MEANWHILE...

Gregg Easterbrook weighed in on all of this earlier today:

"This is not just for show," Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, one of the yak-a-thon proponents, pronounced. Of course it's just for show! There is zero possibility the event will change Democratic votes on the disputed nominees. (We're setting aside the question of whether they ought to be confirmed.) All this event will do is embarrass the Senate, as both parties are made to look ridiculous and impotent. Frist says the yak-a-thon will raise public awareness regarding the cloture rule. People are going to march in the streets about cloture? Americans want to know that the government is well-run; Frist seems determined to convince them it is not. But remember, with Republicans entirely in charge, if the government is not well-run, who is to blame?

If Armed Prophet hasn't made it clear enough to this point -- and I know that I haven't -- I am in complete agreement. This is totally pointless, and only serves to reinforce the inability of Senate Republicans to get these nominees through.

I don't agree with the Democrats in the larger battle of the judicial nominations, but neither do I think this "filibuster" session is a wise political move. It won't move any Senate votes and the constituents at home don't care in the least. At best it could spur campaign donations from Republican donors upset at the Democrats' obstructionism -- but it's as likely to do that as it is spur Democrat donors upset at the Republicans' so-called extremism.

Let the filibuster filibust on!

HUTCHISON SPEAKS!

First Republican I've seen. And she's talking about Estrada, who of course is not actually up for confirmation right now.

Hutchison is perhaps best known to some of you as the former employer of Paul Kelly Tripplehorn who as he has infamously said, is better than you.

And now my roommate has just changed the channel to "The West Wing." Bah! More later.

DURBIN' DONUTS

So the debate at this early hour is still about the matter before the Senate, that being Bush's judicial nominees. Dick Durbin is just reciting arguments made before, in particular the claim that said nominees -- Janice Rogers Brown, Bill Pryor, Charles Pickering, and Priscilla Owen (Miguel Estrada withdrew his nomination recently, if you hadn't heard) -- are "extreme" and "outside the mainstream." That is, of course, a euphemism for "conservative." Democrats do this a lot. When they don't want to acknowledge that it's conservatism versus liberalism that's being debated, they frame it in terms of "extremism."

Durbin did make one interesting point, that being that when FDR tried to pack the Supreme Court, it was Democrats who stopped him from doing so. Armed Prophet thinks there are a few good reasons why this is different -- for example, this isn't the SCOTUS we're dealing with here -- but as an argument against this being a partisan affair, it's worth saying nonetheless.

UPDATE! Armed Prophet's roommate just pointed out that I'd identified Sen. Durbin as "Durkin." That's because: a) I've had a few drinks, and b) Durbin was challenged by then-state Sen. Jim Durkin (R-Westchester) in 2002.

P.S. Ha! Illinois Republicans, it is believed, nominated Durbin to some degree on the hope that voters would be confused between Sen. Durbin and Sen. Durkin. It didn't work then. But it worked tonight!

IS THIS A FILIBUSTER BY DEMOCRATS?

Next up is Dick Durbin, Democrat of Illinois. Within his first minute, he's already mentioned C-SPAN, presuming his constituents have all turned away already. True, probably. That is, if they even tuned in. No singing yet.

AND WE'RE OFF!

Evan Bayh, Democrat of Indiana, is speaking now. Armed Prophet isn't sure who spoke before, of course. (That's right, it's not all Republicans speaking, let alone one senator like Strom Thurmond, as we all remember (or "remember.") As I wrote before, this is a weak "filibuster.")

Smart of the Democrats to put Bayh on in prime time. Nobody hates Bayh, he's about as moderate as they come. And he's pretty much just reciting talking points, throwing in a well-advised bipartisan shout-out to Charles Grassley, Republican of Iowa. Why Grassley? Because he's pissing off Republicans by insisting on pork before one of the bills gets passed. Nice touch.

NO, I HAVEN'T FORGOTTEN!

If you read my previous post closely, you'd notice I said I had plans tonight. I did. Several weeks standing. More on that, later.

But now Armed Prophet is back, and about to tune in for the excitement. (Is it as exciting as I think?)

Just give me a moment.

ARMED PROPHET @ THE "FILIBUSTER"? WHY NOT!

Tonight the Senate begins a filibuster! Yes, starting at 6PM EST, the world's most exclusive club will be staying up around the clock to read the phone book, rant about the opposition and perhaps even sing a song.

Or perhaps I should state more precisely, they will begin a "filibuster." You see, by midnight Thursday, it'll all be over, as they're scheduled to wrap just 30 hours into the fun. In fact, there has been something of a "filibuster" going on for some time now (betcha didn't know that!), so maybe tonight's event should really be called a "'filibuster.'" The late, great Daniel Patrick Moynihan wrote of "defining deviancy down." Well, this Senate has been defining filibuster down. Strom Thurmond, must be spinning in his grave.

Fact is, barring any major unforeseen event, nothing will be settled. No judges will be confirmed. Nobody's career will be damaged. It's barely getting any television coverage, what with Laci Peterson and Kobe Bryant to fuss over. But that's why Armed Prophet will be there. Not actually in the Senate gallery -- that's too much work on too short notice -- but it will be on C-SPAN, and I'll be tuning in. And anyway, if they won't go the distence, then neither will I!

Yes, I do have other engagements tonight and tomorrow, but otherwise I'll be keeping one eye on the floor of the Senate, or perhaps both if starts to cause too much strain. But Armed Prophet will now become "Armed Prophet @ The 'Filibuster'" for the next thirty-something hours, and I'll try to provide the coverage that the other media are too impatient to provide. After all, I've got time. So, why not me? Let the festivities begin!

P.S. For a brief overview of Harry Reid's pre-'buster earlier this week, read this. There's more here, including Reid's comments on the eating habits of desert rabbits (Reid represents Nevada). For more a brief history of the filibuster, read this.

P.P.S. Oh yeah... what's this all about? An irrelevant point, I know. But it's pretty simple. President Bush has judges he wants to nominate to the federal court system. The Democrats do not want him to do this. Democrats say Bush's judges are too conservative. Republicans say the Democrats are playing politics. And so it goes. Given the GOP's mere one-vote majority and the Senate's minority-friendly rules, the Democrats have had it their way. If you haven't really been following it up to this point, there's not much I can say. But this timeline should put it into proper perspective.

OMIGOD! OMIGOD! OMIGOD!

Robert Kagan just walked through my office. Eeek! Now Armed Prophet knows how middle-aged supermarket checkers feel when they see the woman who plays Ray Romano's wife go through two lines over.

INSIGHT FROM A WOULD-BE TELEVISION EXEC

AP headline:

TV has made nation complacent, Gore says

Oh, did Al just finish "Amusing Ourselves To Death"? A little late, there, isn't he?

RIGHT-WINGERS LIKE COLLEGE MUSIC, TOO!

The above statement is counterintuitive to perhaps a great many people, but ask your nearest right-leaning college graduate and you'll find out their music collection doesn't consist entirely of Frank Sinatra and Waylon Jennings. It should include that too, but chances are they'll also have some Northwest indie rock, a fair amount of hip-hop and at least one production by Dan the Automator.

But those of us like that also know what the scene tends to be like, and we put up with the political views of our favorite musicians. (Seriously, if Grover Norquist likes Janis Joplin, then Armed Prophet can be forgiven for liking M.C. Paul Barman.) Nevertheless, sometimes we still get irritated with the culture.

Case in point, Pitchforkmedia's disappointed review of a new song by the Canadian outfit Godspeed You Black Emperor!, called "George Bush Cut Up While Talking." If that title makes you a little nervous, well, in the end you'll be feeling better than Pitchfork's Ryan Schreiber.

The prospect was intriguing: given the collective's tendency to hint at a vague political agenda without ever stating what that agenda might be, it seemed likely that, through a Robert Smigel-esque manipulation of G.W. Bush's words, they would make their first ever tangible statement. Unfortunately, they do no such thing. ... I commend them for taking an obvious stance against this administration and for contributing to a worthy cause, but all this track reveals about them is that they're not the biggest fans of Bush's foreign policy, and that's just not that radical a statement when recent polls have indicated that more than 50% of even his own people feel the same.

What's that? The track isn't anti-Bush enough for you? Oh, please. Besides, you just think you want that. Political music hasn't worked since the fall of Saigon. U2 and Bruce Springsteen can sprinkle their music with references to issues, but the only band that's successfully made overtly-political music in that time is Rage Against the Machine, and look how long that lasted. (By my estimation, one-and-a-half albums.) When your favorite musicians start mixing calls to storm the gate into their records, the result is usually more "Heal the World" and less "For What it's Worth."

In any case, I guess left-wingers can get annoyed with the music culture too -- and not just when OutKast raps about having no truck with abortion. Armed Prophet thinks this is a good lesson, and I'm going to remember it the next time I put on Radiohead's "Hail to the Thief." I may be just a little irritated with its implied anti-Bush tones, but somewhere there's a left-winger who's just a little irritated that its anti-Bush tone isn't more explicit.

SCORE ANOTHER ONE FOR CANADIAN CULTURAL PROTECTIONISM -- AND MORE

It isn't just the French who bristle at America's so-called "cultural imperialism." No, our friendly-but-less-so-than-they-used-to-be neightbors to the north, do the same thing. I've mentioned this some in a soon-to-return column I've been writing for The Dane, about a trip to Toronto I took in May. As I wrote in August:

Canadians watch almost the exact same television programs as Americans, but all mixed up. A single evening's ABC programming lineup, say, could well be divided among two or three Candian networks and scattered across three or four nights of Canadian television.



Fox does not exist, even under the name Sky or Star; The Simpsons is broadcast on a Canadian approximation of Comedy Central. Some American shows are available only on premium cable, The Sopranos notable among them, are free to the public up here. Mostly, Canadian television is American television presented in a different order.



But then sometimes American programming isn't quite appropriate. Take for example American Idol -- itself an updated Brit show -- which has been replicated, hosting duties filled by former Prime Minister Brian Mulroney's son Ben Mulroney, and named -- you can probably guess -- Canadian Idol.

Well, now Variety reports -- behind its subscription firewall -- that:

Broadcasters north of the border are claiming victory Friday after Canada's broadcast regulator nixed two controversial requests that would have circumvented Canadian-owned broadcasters by bringing more U.S.television directly to Canadian screens. In June, the Canadian Cable Television Assn. asked to add 17 popular U.S. services such as HBO, Showtime and ESPN to their distribution lineup. They argued that viewers want it and the lack of availability of the services north of the border slows the transition to digital cable and interferes with the fight against the Canadian black market in U.S. satellite service.

Of course, don't give the viewers what they want! Who would want to do a crazy thing that? Not Glenn O'Farrell, that's for sure:

"We applaud the commission for returning these applications," said [Canadian Assn. of Broadcasters] prexy and chief exec Glenn O'Farrell. "As we have said from the time these proposals were made public, they would have amounted to a complete disruption of the Canadian broadcasting system and its underlying economic foundation, which supports the production and broadcast of high-quality Canadian content."

Not high-quality content. High-quality Canadian content. Even if such programming is lower in quality than what we Yanks might try to send them. The real kicker is that so many American movies and television shows are shot on the streets and sound stages of Canada, particularly inTorontoandVancouver. So by making it harder for Canadians to see American-produced entertainment, they'll be denying attention (and royalties) to Canadians involved in said projects. And lest I forget, so many of Hollywood's best comic actors hail from Canuckistan (not that there's anything wrong with that).

It's the "underlying economic foundation"? There's a euphemism if I've ever heard one. Down here we may think that claim obscures the real goal: to put a premium on Canadian content to ensure a retained national identity. There's some truth to that, and one must ask O'Farrell et al a few questions. Such as: If Canadian identity is something so enduring, why are you afraid it will be done in by letting ESPN go head-to-head with TSN? Yes, there's probably some anti-American at work here, but not quite as extreme as with the French. Besides, the quoted phrase is as I said a euphemism, not necessarily a diversion. The main opposition is lazy businesses who want the government to eliminate the competition for them. And there's a good question for these people, too: Didn't you sign NAFTA?

THE RIGHTNESS OF STOPPED CLOCKS

Don't get me wrong, Armed Prophet thinks Wesley Clark turned out to be a terrible candidate. And even though I don't really know what he stands for, I'm pretty sure I don't like it. That said, allow me to quote from a letter he sent out to supporters over the weekend. The letter is a smart campaign move, but the program it suggests is simply a good thing to do, even if it is only limited to New Hampshire as yet. Clark (by which I mean, one of his staffers) writes:

I'm writing to ask for your help in supporting our wounded soldiers returning from Iraq.



Many of them are treated at the Landstuhl Regional Medical Center in Germany. They usually arrive with only the clothes on their backs. As the casualty rate rises, it because harder to provide the best for our wounded soldiers. They need warm clothes -- the winter there isn't any warmed than winter in New Hampshire. They're also eager for phone cards to call their families back home.



In conjunction with our monthly National Day of Service, my campaign offices in New Hampshire are holding a clothing drive to give the good people at Landstuhl a hand. I'd be grateful if you could stop by our offices with clothing and international phone cards. We'll see that they get to our wounded soldiers right away.

Hear that? That was John Kerry smacking himself on the forehead.

NIHON NI IKIMASSHYOU!

Yes, let's stop by Japan for a second (topically speaking), one of Armed Prophet's favored but infrequently discussed topics. The national elections were held over the weekend. The ruling LDP retained power and Junichiro Koizumi held on to the top spot, but the leading opposition party (folded into one from the second- and third-largest parties) did rather well. As a two-party-system kind of guy, this is good news. But here's some better news, as reported by the Associated Press:

Analysts cautioned, however, that the opposition gains were not all losses for Koizumi's coalition. They also reflected a virtual collapse of two small opposition parties, the communists and socialists, which have steadily fallen out of favor with Japanese voters in recent years as their ideologies have appeared increasingly out of touch with the times.



"The socialists and the communists were the big losers -- the Democrats [that is, not the LDP] basically picked up their seats," said Hisayuki Miyake, a political analyst. "I don't think the election really changes much from the coalition's perspective."



The communists kept just nine of their 20 seats, while the socialists slipped to six from 18.

Poor commies. Poor, poor, poor commies.

THE REVERSE SHOCKER

"Iowa Shock Poll: Gephardt Moves In To Lead" blared the headline on the Drudge Report from last night until just a little while ago. On the radio last night, Drudge himself was just flabbergasted. It was as if Dick Gephardt had just dealt Howard Dean a nearly fatal blow. To reinforce this point, Drudge kept running a sound bite of John Kerry saying that Howard Dean's campaign "is imploding." (Takes one to know one, I guess.)

But let's be serious. Yes, Gephardt does now lead by 7, but consider: Gephardt has led in Iowa already, trading the spot a few times with Dean. One should expect the lead to change hands a few times more before the Iowa caucuses next January. Also, this is but one poll. If other polls show Gephardt with this lead or greater, then let's talk. Also, Dean was down 3 from the last poll, which is within the margin of error (of 4.4%). Gephardt's 6-point climb since the poll was last taken in late August is outside the margin, but just barely. All in all, not much of a shock.

But assuming the shift is genuine, Armed Prophet still advises taking the results with a grain of salt. Reason being, while the poll itself was being conducted -- the 2nd to the 5th of November -- Dean was in the midst of arguably his worst press week, right as the "Confederate flag" flap was at its peak.

The same thing happened during the California recall. In the middle of the race, one poll showed Cruz Bustamante had taken the lead, with Arnold Schwarzenegger slipping. But that poll was conducted right during the middle of Schwarzenegger's worst press week at that point; I believe it was the Oui interview. The story lasted a few days, but a closer look at the day-to-day results showed the furor was dying down by late week. Schwarzenegger, to the disappointment of many, will not be appearing in either "Terminator 4" or "King Conan."

While Dean will probably face a much closer battle with Gephardt than Arnold ended up fighting with Cruz, Armed Prophet sees no reason why this is a major event, nor why Drudge should think it so. (Forced sensationalism is my best guess.) The hard-core Deaniacs were predictably unmoved, and stayed by him in this recent poll. The margins tipped toward Gephardt last week, but the margins may well lean toward Dean territory next week. All other leading indicators -- including the SEIU and AFSCME endorsements, which helped kill the flag story -- point to Dean.

The only "shock" here is that Drudge is taking this so seriously... unless you count it as such that Armed Prophet is taking a single Drudge headline so seriously.

P.S. Meanwhile over at Time, Joe Klein (who seemed to be leaning Dean for awhile, but appears to have recoiled much sooner than he did from Bill Clinton), is not impressed with what the Dean campaign is:

Apart from his early stand against the war in Iraq, what has distinguished Dean's candidacy from that of the other Democrats? The propellant for the Dean surge has been almost all style and process -- the Internet successes; the monthly Meetups; his stirring, plainspoken pugnacity; the joyful abandon of his campaign -- and the sense of community he has aroused in his supporters.

So what does he stand for? He's the furthest among them from George W. Bush, of course!* This impression is really quite a marvel of positioning, as the side-by-side comparison of the two men's personal and family history are so strikingly similar. But this not-Bush phenomenon is very real, and it's been pointed out by more than this blogger that Democrats right now seem less inclined to beat George Bush than to advertise their objection to him.

When Armed Prophet was at that DNC fundraiser with Clinton a couple weeks ago, virtually everyone told me they just wanted someone who could beat George Bush. Sure, that's the politic thing to say, but even after reluctantly offering up their favorite candidate (overwhelmingly Dean), they said someone "not Bush." Not "who can beat Bush," if I remember correctly, but "not Bush." Well, far be it from me to tell them what to do. They wouldn't listen anyway.

___

*Neither is he Clinton, it's well-argued here.