GREAT MINDS THINK ALIKE

Hopping over to Kausfiles, I see the Mickster has just posted the exact same excerpt from today's Bradley story that I did -- see immediate post below -- even lopping off the superfluous first sentence of the paragraph.

But Armed Prophet got there first -- by ten minutes -- and I've got more commentary. Advantage, Armed Prophet? No! Kaus gets a couple tens of thousands of hits per day, while Armed Prophet gets... considerably less.

OOOH, BIG SURPRISE

Arianna is on Larry King right now, explaining her exit from the race by claiming that Arnold has no idea how to run the state (oh, and she does?) and so will govern according to what the special interests (of course) tell him.

After my post from earlier this afternoon, word leaked out that she would not be endorsing Cruz and would oppose the recall. Funny, wasn't she just for it? Huffington has taken plenty of abuse for being a political turncoat, but even her right-to-left migration is more consistent than her views on the recall. The LA Weekly's William Bradley explains:

In a column published before her surprise entry into the governor's race, Huffington looked with favor on the recall, despite the right-wing fingerprints on its origins. But after entering the race, she came out against the recall. Later in her campaign, she endorsed the recall. Now she will again be opposed to the recall.

Though I'd bet against it, don't be too shocked if she switches sides at least one or two more times before the vote next Tuesday.

(Hat tip: Weintraub.)

RUBBER AND GLUE

In late July The New Republic fairly slammed NRO in its print edition for advertising at a discount and recommending Ann Coulter's book "Treason" -- after NR had canned her post-9/11 for her infamous "invade their countries, kill their leaders and convert them to Christianity" column. They wrote then:

Why would the site suddenly say such nice things about the writer it canned? Because [the National Review Book Service] is run by a company called Eagle Publishing, and, in exchange for lending its brand name to [NRBS], National Review pockets a commission off of every copy sold through the site. After all, who needs professionalism, friendship, or loyalty when there's a buck to be made?

Ouch. Fair, though. Flash forward two months, and now the shoe is on the other foot. NRO editor-at-large (and large editor) Jonah Goldberg notes:

I ... think it's amusing that TNR runs a big juicy ad for Saudi Arabia in its current issue. ... I mean the New Republic has time and again -- rightly -- denounced the Saudis for their anti-Semitism, their exportation of terror, their treatment of women, their undermining of democracy in the region, their duplicitous alliance with the United Sates, their role in fomenting al Qaeda etc. And while I find much to disagree with in Ann's writings from time to time, even her alleged crimes fall far short of Saudi Arabia's.

TNR is a worthwhile publication, though often sanctimonious. And even sometimes hypocritical.

FATHER DOESN'T KNOW BEST

Armed Prophet has to give Rep. Patrick Kennedy, Democrat of Rhode Island, a little bit of credit. In an apparently no longer linkable Boston Herald story, Kennedy stands up against Senator Ted's bizarre comments about the Iraq war being a "fraud" and that it was "made up in Texas" to politically benefit President Bush. Says the younger Kennedy of Saddam Hussein:

If he didn't have [chemical weapons], then how come he gassed all his people with them? The fact is, he definitely had them. Whether he destroyed them or not is up for debate. But he had them and he's got a propensity for invading neighboring countries and causing instability in a part of the world [where] we can't afford to have a lot of instability. And I think the country is much safer off without Saddam Hussein.

Though he didn't actually gas "all" his people, and Hitch has rightly objected to the notion that the Kurds were "his" people, at least Arnold Schwarzenegger isn't the only Kennedy with the right attitude about the war in Iraq.

WHO CARES?

From the sound of it, Arianna Huffington will drop out of the race tonight during an appearance on the Larry King show. It also seems possible that she will endorse Cruz Bustamante. Odds are close to 99.9% that she will bash President Bush, strain to tie Arnold to him, and mention Enron and MCI Worldcom a half-dozen times.

Not only is Huffington a complete non-factor in this race, but she might have chosen a better-watched venue -- say, the Greta Van Susteren show. Not only that, but Greta wouldn't be much harder on Huffington than King is. Then again, Huffington might get a full hour on King -- all the better to plug her book.

5,924 TO 399

A lot has been made out of the how large a MeetUp.com following each of the White House Democrats boasts. Though potentially unreliable, it's been generally accurate so far: Howard Dean and Wesley Clark have far more members than the next-highest candidate (that's Dennis Kucinich, whose left-wing supporters organize almost exclusively via grass roots tools like MeetUp.)

How about the California recall candidates' MeetUp support? Here too the numbers are skewed but instructive. There are only two, and with the recall vote just a week away, the two have served their purpose and have no further scheduled meetings. So where's the momentum? Just guess.

No to the California Recall has 399 registered members, whereas Join Arnold has 5,924 supporters, placing him at number five among all political meetup groups, behind the above-mentioned and John Kerry. These numbers of course do not conform to the proportion of support the polls are showing, but it is a good indicator of where all those recently registered voters are headed.

STUPID DRUDGE TRICKS

Finally, it becomes clear who Matt Drudge is supporting in the recall -- Tom McClintock. Hey, that's fine. I'm certainly sympathetic, and had the race been McClintock vs. Dick Riordan at this point, I may well have evolved into a Tombot (but not a Tomikaze) myself.

Until today, Drudge has devoted links on his site and rants on his radio show solely to revealing embarrassing things about Arnold Schwarzenegger and then complaining about the media's lack of interest in them.

Today we finally see something like a bias toward McClintock, in a link to theCNN/USA Today poll, presented with the following text:

But... McClintock Would Easily Beat Bustamante If
Schwarzenegger Dropped Out Of Race: 56% to 37%...

Uh, yes, this is true. But if McClintock drops out, Schwarzenegger beats Bustamante by a wider margin -- 58% to 36%. Meanwhile, 56% of likely GOP voters think Tom should drop out compared to 19% of likely GOP voters who think Ahnuld should drop out.

Gee, if Republicans want to be sure of winning this race, just whom should step aside? Tough call...

DR. SCHWARZENEGGER

The Chron's Matier and Ross have unearthed another, equally ridiculous Bustamante -- his "avant garde artist" sister. Taking that theme, Armed Prophet went looking for the next-highest-ranking Schwarzenegger on Google. It wasn't easy -- I had to remove following words from the search:

• arnold
  
• vote
  
• recall
  
• california
  
• governor
  

Finally, finally, I located another: Dr. Christian Schwarzenegger of the Jurisprudential Institute in Zurich, Switzerland. I'm afraid it's not as as bizarre as Cruz's sister and I've no idea if there's any familial connection, but it is what it is.

(Hat tip: PrestoPundit.)

BAD NEWS CRUZ

In spite of my recent concerns, it seems that the likelihood of a Gov. Cruz Bustamante in the near future is diminishing. It's not nearly as remote as the chances of a Gov. Tom McClintock, but it's moving in that direction.

To win, Judge Loren McMaster is ordering Bustamante to prove he tried to rescind his anti-54 advertisements after last Monday's ruling that the money funding them had been accepted illegally. If he doesn't do so to the satisfaction of the court -- and call it a hunch that he can't -- Bustamante will be held in contempt of court. So, what was that about the ruling being a "total vindication of Cruz Bustamante"?

Meanwhile, there's a growing sense among Dems that Cruz's campaign has stalled. Which is funny, because that's what everyone -- Tom in particular -- was saying about Arnold just before the debate and recent landslide of endorsements. Thanks to Cruz, we're now seeing what a real stalled campaign looks like. That can't be good for turnout, can it?

THE FAILURE OF THE YES-NO STRATEGY

Looks like DiFi was right. I first saw this mentioned in a news story last week, but this morning the LAT notes:

In internal campaign polls, Davis continues to fall a few points short of the vote he needs to remain in office. But the polls show a swing of several points in Davis' favor if voters believe his successor would not be Bustamante but Republican Schwarzenegger, Davis advisors said.

Assuming one believes internal polling, there you have it. Enough Democrats are voting yes-Bustamante to make a couple of points difference. Of course, if the "few points short" the Times refers to are the same as the 54-40 and 54-41 cited by Weintraub, then that would be a lot of Democrats. But fourteen points worth? Probably not. Even the Times didn't say that swing would be enough to save him.

Nevertheless, if one assumes the validity of the poll, Cruz's candidacy has induced a sizable number of Democrats to vote yes on recall. How about that?

L'EFFROYABLE IMPOSTURE

If your French is as good as mine, you would have to punch the above phrase into Babelfish or be told by someone to find out what it means. It's the title of a book by French nutjob Thierry Meyssan, and it translates as something like the "The Appalling Fraud." You may well remember that book -- it was the one attempting to prove that no plane hit the Pentagon on 9/11. Well, Meyssan is back with a parody deck of the Iraqi Most Wanted Playing Cards, called The Bush Regime Card Deck, subtitled The 52 Most Dangerous American Dignitaries. And I think the above title fits what Meyssan has put together.

Here is a link to an MSNBC/Reuters news story about them. And you can actually download a PDF with the faces of each card at Meyssan's website.

The temptation is to leave these alone, but as Meyssan's book was a bestseller in his native France, chances are these will, too. And plans are under way to translate these cards into several languages and sell them all over the world.

Donald Rumsfeld is the Ace of Spades and Paul Wolfowitz and Condoleezza Rice are the Kings and Queens. President Bush doesn't rate any better than King of Diamonds, superseded by Dick Cheney, the ace of that suit. Spades are identified as "Organization," Diamonds as leaders of "Exploitation," Clubs as the system of "Repression" and Hearts are in charge of "Communication."

It's full of conspiratorial nonsense -- apparently Warren Buffett is the world's second richest man because he hung out with Bush and WTC execs on 9/11 -- and insults that say more about Meyssan and his audience than the targets -- John Ashcroft, the "Secretary of Justice," is first described as a "Singer of Psalms." Oooh. UBL -- not an "American Dignitary" so far as I am aware -- is the Joker, and his card reads:

Alibi-in-chief. A former agent in charge of fighting the Soviets in Afghanistan, then dividing Islamists and nationalists. Whereabouts : unknown. Current mission: to foment a clash between the 'Arab-Muslim' and 'Jewish-Christian' worlds.

It's telling just how crazy this deck is when you're almost tempted to give Meyssan credit for noting that bin Laden does want to pit the Muslim world against the West. Almost.

It's riddled with errors, too. Adminstration spokesfolk Ari Fleischer and Victoria Clark are included, though both left the admin this summer. Best of all, "Of Paradise and Power" author Robert W. Kagan is listed as Robert A. Kagan, and it is Berkeley law professor Robert A.'s face that graces the card.

With research like this, need one even bother refute the rest?

BUSTAMANTE'S CAMPAIGN

It's depressing to think that Cruz Bustamante, who has run a campaign as lackluster as his own personality could win this thing simply because he is a Democrat. Dan Weintraub makes a little-made point in his online chat with the Washington Post today:

Bustamante ... has all but refused to speak directly to the press, or answer questions about anything. And he disappeaers from the campaign trail for days at a time.

He was terrible in the debates, at least as condescending as Al Gore in 2000. His position on illegal immigration is ruinous. His economic proposals -- tax, tax, tax, tax, tax, as Arnold says -- would be devastating. The man has no will to stand up to anyone save Enron, which isn't exactly around to fight back any longer. He lacks Arnold's passion and even his specifics, believe it or not. He lacks Tom McClintock's principle and resolve. Hell, these days he even lacks Gray's humility.

California's voters are ostensibly voting for change the week after next. Yet Cruz, who has led in almost every recent poll, is promising only more of the same.

TIM NOAH IS IGNORING ME

Of course he is. After all, he is Chatterbox, one of several columnists for Slate and I am Armed Prophet, one of thousands of bloggers on Blogger. In response to his horrid column about Republicans "supporting" Hillary Clinton for a 2004 White House run, earlier this week I sent him a letter. Yesterday, I sent him another one. It went something like this:

How feeble was your analysis? About as feeble as my response! Obviously I should have noted that among those pushing the notion that Hillary might break her promise and run in '04 was ... Bill! Obviously, you should have noted it, too. So I'll forgive me my mistake. But I'm not the one getting paid to write internet columns wherein I supposedly comment usefully on the political landscape.



Two -- here's what Debbie Stabenow said yesterday in Roll Call: "I think she would be an excellent candidate. ... I think she has got to make a decision about what she wants to do but I certainly know a lot of people who would be very enthused about her running." Of course, she only said that yesterday, so it's not fair to insinuate you somehow missed that statement. But -- and if you're really so plugged-in as you claim -- you must know that Democrats are just as speculative about Hillary's aims as are Republicans. Don't you?



So... what was that about only Republicans talking up a Hillary candidacy? I may have to recommend you for Whopper of the Week.

Did I intend to sound more than a bit like his colleague Mickey Kaus? Not exactly. It just sort of came out that way, and I left it as is. I might claim that snarkiness all sounds the same, but then Xrlq manages to use a different voice. (Look on the upside, at least you're not using those oft-mimicked editor's note. Oh wait --Ed.)

Back to the recall soon, I promise.

WHAT'S THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LEGAL AND ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS?

If you're Cruz Bustamante, as the San Francisco Chronicle's Debra Saunders points out, there isn't one:

Asked at Wednesday night's gubernatorial debate, how much he would spend on health care for the children of illegal immigrants, Bustamante gave no dollar amount, of course. But he was clear on this: He does not believe the state should distinguish between legal and illegal immigrants. Bustamante has said as much before. Asked twice at a Walnut Creek Town Hall meeting what government services he believes the state should deny to illegal immigrants, Bustamante failed to name a single program or service. ... When asked if he saw a distinction between legal and illegal immigrants earlier this month, Bustamante told reporters, "I think that anybody who works and pays taxes ought to have a right to citizenship."

One is left to conclude that as governor, Bustamante would do nothing to enforce immigration laws. Anybody and everybody is welcome at any time. While Armed Prophet is all for immigration and does not care what is the racial or ethnic background of a new citizen, it does matter to me that residents are fully involved in the institutions of American society. Not only will they be paying the taxes that everyone else must, but they will learn about and feel invested in this country and take the United States' -- and California's -- interests as their own. I wonder if Cruz Bustamante has any idea what I'm talking about.

DID I MENTION THAT I TOOK YESTERDAY OFF?

I think I just did.

THE LOSERS

Now, when did Gray Davis first get mentioned? I missed it, closely watching though I was. In the most watched event of the campaign, Davis and his plight was nowhere to be found. Some of the pundits on CNN and Fox News seem to be echoing this. Basically, the lack of much debate -- save for a few minutes early on -- about the goodness of the recall necessarily hurts Davis.

Also losing: Cruz Bustamante. He really didn't say or do anything worth much mention. Apart from a brief exchange with Arnold over textbooks or another exchange with Arianna about ... er, something, he didn't do a whole lot.

Also also losing: Peter Camejo. His only "win" was that he was even allowed to participate. Other than that, who cares?

PERHAPS NOT SURPRISING

Scwarzenegger's closing statement was gangbusters. Of course he had time to work on it, but so did they all. And his was without a doubt the most forceful, focused and ... well, if I was a committed alliterationist I'd be searching through Thesaurus.com for the right word. Regardless, its was spot on and well-delivered. For a guy often accused of lacking humility he showed it here, saying this was "bigger than I am," and asking for help from Californians. He said: "I think we can do a lot of great things." And, don't underestimate: "Thank you very much." I'm not sure if others were so grateful at the end. But he clearly was.

P.S. Arnold is in "spin alley" right now, talking to reporters. He just said something I've thought he should have said for a long time, and should have said during the debate -- that he and McClintock "agree on a lot of issues" and "we could make a great team in Sacramento" and "I look forward to working with him." That's important stuff. Too bad he hasn't said more of that already.

P.P.S. Also not surprisingly, the cable news nets are all on Arnold right now. And he's offering more specifics! I don't know what the local California stations are showing, but if they're showing this, he'll gain a few more points based on that alone.

FIRST IMPRESSION

Now that was a debate. But still, not a home run for anyone. In the past few moments I've heard both Chris Matthews and Michael Barone say Arnold did "more than he had to" -- direct quote from Matthews.

I disagree. He did well, but he didn't do what he should or could have. There was no real confrontation between anybody, save for a couple of back-and-forths between Arianna and Arnold and Cruz.

If Tom was to show that he had something Arnold didn't, I don't think he did that. But as Fred Barnes just said, Arnold did not "wrap up the election" the way he might have. But if Bill Simon, Darrell Issa and Peter Ueberroth were going to endorse Schwarzenegger before the debate, I don't see why the would change that now.

But, but, but. Yeah, there's a lot of things up in the air. It's still mostly status quo. Arnold didn't break through, but Tom didn't accomplish anything he hadn't done in the other debates. If it was a wasted opportunity for everyone, I think it might be his.

I have a few pages of notes I pounded out during the debate itself, and if I can decipher them, I'll offer more thoughts on that during the minutes, hours and days ahead.

WHEN DO I FIND TIME TO POST DURING THE DEBATE?

When Peter Camejo talks, of course.

TWO-THIRDS THROUGH

This is not a bad debate. Far better and more unpredictable than what's come before. The naysayers who said this would be "scripted" were not just wrong, they were: WRONG.

But nothing substantial between Tom and Arnold.

35%

That was my guess as to how likely this debate would be business as usual. So far, I'm wishing I'd put that closer to 55%. Nothing special, at this point. The expected jabs, yes. Arnold sticking close to campaign themes, yes. Tom and Cruz sparring with numbers. The other two -- why are they there -- ranting about Enron and Adelphia. As yet, no real sparks, just the occasional applause for a funny line or a moderately good point. Statham is doing a good job of keeping everyone involved. But no fireworks, so far.

FIRST APPLAUSE TO ARNOLD

Arnold talks about the operating deficit Cruz has helped presided over -- $10 million or so -- and mentions the "third strike and you're out." Laughter and applause. McClintock comes back to get in his first dig on Schwarzenegger, for calling the "lemon law" the "three strikes law." Gets laughs.

All right, this minute-by-minute thing is a bit much. Next post will come with something a bit more substantial.

A BULLY? OR A FIGHTER?

Arianna and Arnold talk over each other, and moderator Stan Statham has to bring Arnold to quiet. Not good? Then Cruz gets in next. Not the way to do it. Back to Arnold -- attacks Cruz. Is this bullying or feistiness? Hard to say. Still, I see him bringing it back to talking points and stump-speechiness. He looks good and sounds good, but it's not home run material yet.

WE'RE UNDER WAY!

Already this is more of a debate than the debates candidate forums the Democratic presidential contenders have yet faced. McClintock has gone the most specific, mentioning the depature from California of Fidelity Intl. -- can Arnold match that?

Anyone who expects to do well must break into the clutter and, if possible, dominate the discussion. So far, McClintock is doing that more than any others.

HERE WE GO

Are you ready? More importantly, are they ready? One group who is certainly ready are Arnold supporters. Behind the correspondents on CNN and Fox News are nothing but pro-recall, pro-Arnold backers.

All right -- the intro has begun.

THE OTHER 128 (OR THEREABOUTS)

The usually thoughtful, blogging "fringe" candidate Dan Feinstein describes at some length his experience going on the Leno show earlier this week:

After being forced to queue for twenty minutes in the blazing Burbank sun, and passing through three Baghdad-like checkpoints, we were allowed into the air-conditioned NBC facilities with our guests. There, we recovered from the heat exhaustion with complimentary beverages, until some smartly dressed NBC cadres marched in and divided us Auschwitz style - separating the fit from the expendable.

Okay, that's a bit much, but the post is well worth reading in its entirety. Armed Prophet has never been a movie extra, but some friends have and -- appropriately enough -- this sounds about the same. Even Feinstein notes at the end:

But that, I guess, is show business.

Not a new sentiment, but certainly a valid one.

THE BAT

Lest I be accused of further impugning Tom McClintock's credibility as a candidate, I must point out that his web site is plagiarizing taking a page from Howard Dean by tracking web donations with ... a baseball bat! No, seriously. (I thought Arianna was the one trying to adopt Dean's web tactics.) It's a superficial comparison, but... uh, who's the real Republican here?

POSTGAME PREVIEW

After the debate, Fox News will have Brit Hume leading the commentary until 11PM EDT, or about a half-hour. MSNBC will put Chris Matthews on as ringleader through midnight. I'm not sure what CNN will do, but then if you're a regular reader of Armed Prophet, you're probably not a regular viewer of CNN.

T-MINUS ONE HOUR OR SO

Most of the lead-up commentary seems to be predicting a good night for Arnold. Armed Prophet thinks that is probably correct. Barring a total meltdown -- say, lashing out at McClintock or horribly, obviously muddling the response to a charge by... McClintock -- he will likely do fine. I doubt there is anyone except McClintock who can do any serious damage to Schwarzenegger's campaign tonight. Democrats are voting for Bustamante and fringe leftists will split between Camejo and Huffington. The only debate left -- and it's only a debate because of McClintock's stubbornness -- is on the GOP side. The only exchanges to watch carefully are those between Arnold and Tom.

Some have compared this to the Bush v. Gore debate, and that makes some sense. Little was expected of Bush, and not much is expected of Schwarzenegger save competency. Bush succeeded by being likable and (in debates two and three) well-enough informed. Schwarzenegger must be respectful of his opponents and well-versed enough to put aside their complaints with only a few words. I think he can do that. But Bush v. Gore only goes so far, as those were debates between the two major parties. This is much more of a free-for-all with very, very little room between the two major contestants.

I completely agree with Kaus' argument that Schwarzenegger would do well to go all wonky at least once, explaining in layman's terms why the worker's comp system is broken, or giving a point-by-point explication Gray Davis' pandering-for-donations. Because he has in the past week gotten much more specific on the issues -- economic (specific is relative to McClintock and Bustamante) and environmental (unrealistic though it is), in particular -- Schwarzenegger should do well on those things. They're fresh in his mind. And he had better be nimble, especially on economic policy. Kaus and others are right -- perhaps the worst thing he could do is reiterate his "people don't care about specifics" line. They may not from Tom or Cruz, but from Arnold they do.

He probably needn't go after Bustamante on the credibility-crippling developments with regard to what happened to his $4 million from the Indian tribes. Arianna took care of that in the first debate and as campaign finance is her signature issue, she is likely to do the same again. Cruz would be foolish to respond with another flippant "Tell me what you really think," but if anything this campaign has shown competency isn't Schwarzenegger's issue, it's his.

Camejo? Are you kidding? I thought this debate was supposed to include only those who polled above 10% or so. That would apply to Huffington then, too. Apparently I heard that wrong. Either way, no possible Schwarzenegger voter cares a whit what they say about Arnold. (Even in California, his SUV affinity is a non-issue in this election, and in any case, have you seen his environmental plan?) They're irrelevant unless they can land some blows on Bustamante. Camejo should be a total non-factor, but Huffington might have one moment that gets TV time tomorrow. And if this debate is anything like the last one, that will be against Cruz.

But let's not forget that this debate is really between Schwarzenegger and McClintock. Watch those two. That's where this election could be decided.

Everybody always says moments like this one will be make-or-break -- MSNBC's Jerry Nachman compared this to Kennedy v. Nixon in '60 -- but I think we have to hold out the possibility that it could be a draw. Schwarzenegger could be decent but not exceptional and McClintock could corner him with a loyalty test. I'd say the chances are as high as 35% that this debate will disappoint us all.

So: Bring on the debate! And may the farmboy from Austria-cum-onetime highest-paid actor in Hollywood win.

GOOD POINT

Fox News just aired a clip from an interview with Jim Brulte, McClintock's boss (sort of) and recent addition to Schwarzenegger's extensive list of supporters.

Arnold is a little more moderate than I am, and Tom is a little more conservative than I am. But I am a conservative, and conservatism is not a suicide pact.

Agreed. One of the reasons I gave up my youthful (relatively speaking) identification as a liberal was the disregard for reality found in so much of it -- from the antiglobalizationist far left to the government-can-fix-all-our-problems middle. Conservatism aims to be practical, to set reasonable goals and pursue the most efficacious manner of going about it. If the last few weeks of McClintock's campaign haven't shown a serious disregard for reality, I don't know what does.

Somebody should really make this point to McClintock.

Oh, wait.

OH REALLY?

San Francisco Mayor Willie Brown is on Crossfire right now, and apparently he now claims he never threatened to recall a potential Republican winner in the recall. Tucker Carlson pressed him with this Brown quote from early last month:

I have enough money to have it work for Democrats. And believe me, I think the Democrats will do it.

Brown waffled, and though he appeared to assert yes, I have the money but no I won't do it. Apparently it's just the Republicans twisting his words around, Funny though -- that's not how anyone that noted right-wing Republican Jake Tapper quite saw it.

TIMOTHY NOAH IS WRONG OR DISHONEST

Non-recall, briefly.

This morning Tim Noah, aka Slate's Chatterbox, published the second installment of a two-parter about Republicans and rumors that Hillary Clinton will run for president next year. Part two is amusing and maybe about 50% correct, but nothing more or less than what Chatterbox is most days.

Part one on the other hand, I'm forced to conclude is slanderous at best and ignorant at worst. His argument? That Republicans want Hillary to run for president. He cites a number of conservative columnists -- William Safire, Dick Morris, Mark Steyn -- who are now spearheading a "movement ... to draft" Clinton into the race. They are? What's his evidence? Morris claims that Hillary's supporters have been put on notice; President Bush's cousin John Ellis theorized that a Wesley Clark-Hillary Clinton ticket could happen; John Fund "floated" -- Noah's term -- a similar scenario. Uh, Noah? None of them are advocating a run. They're just speculating. Steyn, in a column I haven't read, apparently "urged" Hillary to run. Steyn is a humorist.

Whatever. You know and I know and Noah knows that these are not "Republicans for Hillary," as the piece is titled. That isn't really the point. The point is best explained by printing a letter I sent to Chatterbox yesterday morning. No response but the auto-response has come back since, and as I figure one is not coming, I might as well run it myself. I wrote:

Your column on the "Republicans for Hillary" is cute, all right. And there's no doubt a lot of conservatives in the press are inordinately bent out of shape about the prospect of a Hillary candidacy in '04. Then again, speculation is not the same thing as support, even if it has the side effect of encouragement. But you knew that. As you know Chatterbox reads better cute than coherent.



However, you've neglected to mention (at least) two people with recent columns no less pro-Hillary (but certainly not more anti-Hillary) than the ones you cite -- CQ's Craig Crawford, last week -- -- and Roll Call's Morton Kondracke, yesterday. Kondracke is more of a moderate, but he's certainly not an identified Republican. And Crawford is by no means a conservative. By your math, they're both desperate for Hillary to run.



But what was Chatterbox this week? A cute web column that essentially depicted only conservatives as talking about a possible Hillary White House run. That isn't the case; everybody is talking about it. Whether or not Hillary is plotting a run -- and this letter-writer finds that highly dubious -- it's not merely a "conservative fantasy." Sorry.

Kondracke and Crawford are not exactly obscure; one is a fixture on Fox News, the other a fixture on MSNBC. Yet Noah reduces the number of pro-Hillary Democrats to Mario Cuomo and a handful of Democratic activists around the nation who have online petitions or just web sites. For the second time this post: Whatever. Noah just wants to have it whichever way works for his clever little column, accuracy and political reality be damned. As Oxblogger Josh Chafetz has written about the far worse Maureen Dowd, sometimes cuteness comes before coherence.

FAIR WARNING

Ventura County Star columnist Timm Herdt -- that's Tom McClintock's hometown paper and day job of blogger Howard Owens -- writes about the kind of consequences facing McClintock that I mentioned yesterday. [Note to Blogger: Fix the permalinks, stat!]

Herdt writes:

What if it turns out that the warnings those who are backing Arnold Schwarzenegger are proved true? ... There will be a primary election in Ventura and Santa Barbara counties March 2 to select the Republican nominee for the 19th Senate District. If it appears at that time that McClintock's persistence in the recall campaign cost Republicans the governorship, there is a good chance he will face an opponent in the GOP primary.

Let's face it, running a primary challenge is often difficult to pull off. They are tough to win, and very often the winner (whomever it is) goes on to lose in the general election. But if Republicans are angry enough at McClintock for costing them the governorship and California a right-minded leader -- and Armed Prophet thinks they should be that angry -- then taking him out and losing that Senate seat to a Democrat isn't that big a deal.

Did I just write that? I did. But only keeping in mind that McClintock has already made the same calculation, but with far direr consequences. The GOP is already in the minority in the Senate and in no position to retake it anytime soon. Why not teach him a lesson and take back the seat an election later? So far as I know, it's not like Ventura or Santa Barbara counties are itching to elect a Democrat in any case.

Early on, McClintock was an intriguing long shot, but at this point he can only do harm to the state of California. Unless he buys into the ridiculous notion propagated by Michael Shroeder, late of the Bill Simon campaign, that Schwarazenegger is "running to the left of Bustamante," he knows he will be doing California no favors by making a Bustamante victory more likely.

DEBATE TONIGHT!!!

A bit more than six hours away still, but it already feels like game day. For those of us outside the Golden State, CNN, Fox News and MSNBC will be airing the debate at 9 PM EDT (6PM PDT, sometime in between if you live in flyover country). Armed Prophet will be providing pre-game and postgame coverage, and I may even post while it's still going on.

Paul Mercurio at CNN has a breakdown of how the debate works, and also the list of questions, if you're letting Weintraub down by not having studied the questions ahead of time yourself. Plus, Charlie LeDuff at the New York Times has the Schwarzenegger strategy, straight from the campaign itself.

And like every big sporting event, Armed Prophet will start drinking early.

P.S. If you wondered what happend to those half-written posts that have now disappeared, they'll be up in a bit. (I'm haven't started drinking yet.

WE'VE ALREADY SEEN ARNOLD'S ASS

Wow, never thought I'd be writing that title.

Really, the San Francisco Chronicle has nothing on Matt Drudge in terms of anti-Arnold sentiment. Anyone who's heard his radio show knows that for certain, but anyone who's been to his site in the past few months can tell. Now he's posted a photo he talked about last Sunday, a fuzzy picture by Robert Mapplethorpe, the late, controversial homoerotic photographer. Hey Drudge, have you seen T3? If so, you've seen Arnold's ass! The photo is so grainy and diffused as to barely rate a PG. Frankly, you have to take Drudge's word for it that it's even Arnold in the photo. Now, it's possible Drudge has got worse, but I find it highly unlikely Arnold posed for any of Mapplethorpe's more controversial work. Drudge, of course, cites examples of that work.

So why does a conservative like Drudge hate Arnold so much? Beats me. It's not as if he's trumping any other recall candidates, nor is he spinning much against the recall itself -- just anti-Arnold. Mickey Kaus and Dan Weintraub both criticize Schwarzenegger plenty, and Kaus even broke the worst of it -- that 1977 Oui interview -- but perhaps not too surprisingly, both sound like probable Schwarzenegger voters. Not Drudge. Good thing he moved to Florida.

If there wasn't a Matt Drudge, Gray Davis would have to invent him.

MORE MCCLINTOCK

If you haven't already read my earlier screed, scroll down a couple of posts. You can't miss it. Anyway, I should have pointed out this bit from today's story in San Francisco Chronicle, on Darrell Issa's pronouncement that only the Republican most likely to win should remain in the race:

Issa said that McClintock ... has admitted to him that it was unlikely he could win a one-on-one race for governor.

What, why not? He nearly won a one-on-one race for Controller last year. Shouldn't that be encouragement to try another one-on-one race? If not, then why does he think he can win a two-on-one race where he is the lower-polling of two Republicans?

I was wrong to say he was Ralph Nader. At least Nader knew he couldn't win. He's really more Ross Perot. And I hope the backhandedness of this next statement is clear: Cruz Bustamante is no Bill Clinton.

P.S. Weintraub has more on Issa and his comments. Sounds like he could endorse Arnold by Sunday. McClintock's Senate party leader, Jim Brulte, just did. McClintock got a campaign, all right. And he lost.

FREE DAN WEINTRAUB

Fresh Potatoes has started the "Free Weintraub Coalition," which Armed Prophet would join if only I could upload pictures to my site. (Remember, I'm starting to work on getting the hell off Blogger.) But I'm a member in spirit.

Following on the reporting by Slate's Mickey Kaus, the Potatoes man has a ton of great commentary on the Sacramento Bee's horrible bungling of the case. Point by point, he explains why California Insider the blog beats the pants off the Bee's political reportage. No question, it does. The only question is, will the Bee recognize its mistake and -- as it apparently seems they're not actually cracking down on him -- apologize for their mistake?

I won't hold my breath.

TOM McCLINTOCK MUST NOT STAY IN THIS RACE

But you knew that. Forewith, a rant:

Now that we know for certain that the recall election will be held on October 7, there are a handful of plausible outcomes. One is that Gray Davis survives. Another is that Davis is recalled and Cruz Bustamante is installed as governor. A third -- the one Armed Prophet favors -- is that Davis is removed and Arnold Schwarzenegger is elected as the replacement. One outcome that is not plausible and is barely within the realm of possibility is the election of Tom McClintock. Why is it that everyone but McClintock and his so-called "Tombots" can see this?

Tomorrow is the big debate, and as far as Armed Prophet is concerned, the election will come down to that. If Arnold does well, he will get a small boost, one perhaps large enough to push him above Bustamante -- and he only needs but a few more points in order to win. Of course if he does not, then he will drop a few points and either Bustamante or Davis will come out on top. But let's assume for the moment that Schwarzenegger does well; after all, he's been quick on his toes throughout the campaign -- most of his stumbles have involved his campaign staff or resulted from things Arnold said or did 20 years ago or more.

Let's assume that. Let's then ask, what would be the effect of McClintock's continuation of his gubernatorial campaign except possibly deprive his own party victory at the polls in barely two weeks' time?

Today, as the San Francisco Chronicle is reporting, recall funder Rep. Darrell Issa has said that unless the Republican with less support -- and there is no question who he means -- drops out, he'll encourage Californians, conservatives especially, to vote against the recall. Already some have derided this as backing Davis, but he's right: Cruz Bustamante could be a lot worse.

Unfortunately, McClintock doesn't seem to be getting the message. That or he's wilfully ignoring it, which is probably worse. Also pressuring McClintock to do the sensible thing is the California Republican County Chairmen's Association, which is scheduled to meet Thursday and -- everyone predicts -- endorse Schwarzenegger. Regrettably, the pro-McClintock county chairs are raising a fuss and McClintock's campaign manager, John Feliz is lashing out at the Association and Schwarzenegger alike. This morning he told CNN's Morning Grind that Schwarzenegger's camp is "muscling" the chairs to do this, presumably against there will. He says:

He's trying to beat up on the volunteers and frighten them into believing that Tom is spoiling [GOP] chances to become governor. If they really cared about the state party and [defeating] Gray Davis, they would encourage the campaigns to talk about principle and not endorse an individual who's had more face time in Hyannisport than he does in Sacramento.

Wow. Wow. Can you say "bitter"? One, Republicans are not paranoid to think McClintock could play the spoiler. He's already playing it. McClintock has said time and time again in interviews that first you have the campaign, then you have the election. But this ignores the obvious fact that the GOP is fighting out its primary in the same election where Democrats already have their replacement candidate settled. Second, what's with the "Hyannisport" crack? Schwarzenegger's in-laws have nothing to do with this campaign and at best the ad hominem attack could be read as another insinuation that Schwarzenegger will raise taxes. Either way, McClintock is fighting a fellow Republican. If the goal of this recall is to remove the Democrats from power, then he's wildly off-message.

His campaign director, John Stoos, rhetorically asks in the Chronicle:

If Arnold Schwarzenegger is as strong a candidate as everyone wants us to believe, why is he spending so much time trying to get us out?

Actually, McClintock has said in numerous interviews that he hasn't received any phone calls asking him to drop out. That's probably true, but it's certainly possible some of Schwarzenegger's staffers have called his campaign and talked to the press about it. But what about Darrell Issa? Or the County Chairmen's Association? They are not mere extensions of the Total Recall Committee -- they're Republicans who are serious about taking back the governor's mansion, and they know that at this point, only Schwarzenegger can do it.

We've had a good campaign, and as long as Schwarzenegger hits the right marks tomorrow night, there is no way McClintock can expect to do anything but cost Republicans a victory. Now I know, McClintock has never shied away from bucking the party in the name of conservative principle. (Note Feliz's rant to CNN.) Maybe McClintock doesn't care about helping Republicans, but he should care about helping conservatives. No conservative would be helped by Davis or Bustamante in the governor's office. But even if they didn't get everything they wanted from Schwarzenegger, they would get most of it.

Tom McClintock is not a serious candidate. He's Ralph Nader. If he doesn't drop out by next Monday, the Republican Party should work to defeat him next November. He should be likened to Jim Jeffords not just locally but nationwide. Tom McClintock says he is acting on principle, but really he's telling California: if I can't have it, I'd rather the whole state go to hell. If McClintock doesn't come to his senses, conservatives should tell him to go to hell.

TO THE BEE

A number of other recall bloggers are posting the letters they sent to Bee ombudsman Tony Marcano regarding the muzzling of Dan Weintraub, so I may as well do the same. Here's what I sent yesterday:

Mr. Marcano:



As journalist and regular reader from the East Coast, I think the Bee should rescind the newly announced policy of submitting Dan Weintraub's blog to editorial review,
particularly because this could put a damper on the blog's popularity -- and hence traffic to the overall site. His blog has been such a draw since the recall began because of its informed spontanaeity. He has good information and he gets it up fast. If an editor has to vet it first, the speed which the web enables is lost. If this means posts are confined to only certain parts of the day, and if readers know this, then just wait and watch California Insider's traffic take a dive.



You write that nothing should be published without an editor. Well, that's true of newspapers but it's not true of blogs. Even a blog hosted by a newspaper is still a blog and not something actually published in the newspaper. The Bee is lucky to have a newspaperman who understands this thing we call blogging. Many -- including you, Mr. Marcano, I'm afraid to say -- do not.



I'm hard-pressed to think of a time that Weintraub has had to correct something,
but that isn't even the issue here. What, pray tell, did he do wrong? Write an opinion that
offended part of the readership, is what. Is that to say that an editor would excise those opinions? I surely hope not. Is that to say that the editors don't trust Dan Weintraub to report and comment responsibly? Well, is that it?



I urge you strongly to rethink this; isn't loss of readership worse than angry
calls from those readers?



Thanks for reading.

It's not nearly as angry as I actually was (and am), but my ranting days are far behind me. Nor does it really sum up all of my thoughts -- it's written to point out why it's in the Bee's interest to reconsider its new blog policy. Earlier this afternoon I got an email back from Marcano saying it had been forwarded to the "Your Views" section. I'll let you know if it turns up.

THE DELAY IS GOOD FOR ARNOLD!

That's one way to read this NY Times article on the recall:

"About a quarter of voters in statewide elections in California typically cast absentee ballots, [Field Poll director Mark DiCamillo] said. State officials said on Friday that nearly 500,000 people had voted by absentee ballot since Sept. 8, with an additional two million absentee ballots still outstanding. Officials had expected many of those ballots to be returned this week.



'This is the main harvesting time for absentee votes,' Mr. DiCamillo said. 'It cuts into the number of votes that would have been cast. Maybe those will be made up for if indeed they go forward with the election, but I don't know that, and we may never know that.'"

Much has been made -- starting, I believe, with this Arnold Steinberg commentary for NRO -- of the fact that Republicans tend to vote by absentee, and that Tom McClintock's ongoing presence race could siphon off enough absentee votes to elect Cruz Bustamante, even if he threw his support to Arnold Schwarzenegger in the final days.

Well, if the uncertainty surrounding the election date has caused the majority of likely absentee voters to hold off for the time being, this gives Arnold time to succeed at the debate (assuming that's what happens) and for McClintock to come to his senses (again, just assuming). Much like the temporary postponement cost Gray Davis his best media week since the recall began, the unintended consequences may end up hurting those one might typically have expected to benefit.

OFF-TOPIC

Football again, just for the moment. Here's Tim Russert, just a few minutes ago:

Go Bills, squish the fishes. Hold the emails, I know dolphins are mammals, but squish the fishes.

Awhile back somebody (neither Nexis nor Google turned it up) lamented Russert's penchant for boosting his hometown team in the closing moments of "Meet The Press" every week -- at least until Buffalo started winning again. Well, going into today's game they're 2-0. If Drew Bledsoe keeps it up and the D-Line can hold back the dreadlocked wonder, Russert might just have bragging rights again...

P.S. Thanks for not pointing out my mangling of the above-quoted line, all twenty of you or so who stopped by today. The correction has been made.

BACK TO THE RECALL

Isabel has passed. Armed Prophet never lost power, but Internet has been spotty since that night. In any case, now it's back to my temporarily more enduring obsession, the California recall. The title of this blog has been restored accordingly.

And relating to another, more enduring obsession: Go Ducks!!!

HAS MODO GONE SOFT?

From the looks of her column this morning, yes. Concerning candidate Schwarzenegger, she writes (with as much sincerety as she's capable), "Poor Arnold." And this after several weeks of declaring him the principal cause of the race's "wackiness." What's the difference? She got an interview, of course. The resulting column is more coherent than the average effort, more generous to a Republican than she's been in ages, but -- no surprise here -- ultimately as

Revealing moment: MoDo claims to have fallen victim to a staff assistant's trick, purportedly playing a couple of "Kindergarten Cop" clips over the phone, causing her to believe Arnold was on the phone and wanted to know "who's your daddy?" I know radio stations have rigged up such a thing, but a NY Times office hand? I'd say to call me a skeptic, but since it shows MoDo as that gullible, I'll take her word for it.

P.S. Uh, I just now filled in an accidenal blank on that post now, on Monday afternoon. Maybe I shouldn't blog on Sundays.

WHOOOOOSH!!!

That is all.

11:15

The wind and rain continues unabated -- if not stronger -- and now the power is beginning to waver. Uh oh.

At least I've got the new OutKast double album uploaded to my iPod. Oh, and candles.

WOOOOHOOOOOO!!!

No work! No work tomorrow! Yeeeeha! Wheeeee!

Thank you, Isabel! The National Weather Service may call you a tropical storm, but you'll always be a hurricane to me.

Yes!!!!!!!!!

P.S. Yes, I know -- this is by far the least mature blog post I've written in my eight-and-a-half months of posting to this site. And you know what? That's what.

P.P.S. Now that I'm off the hook, I fully expect the power to be knocked out within five mintues.

DOWNGRADED

Booooo!!! Just when it gets good, they downgrade Isabel to a "Tropical Storm"? Laaaaaaame! Bah, I'll leave the blog title as it is for now.

A MIGHTY WIND

Whooooooooo!!! Now this is more like it. All I know is the grove of trees outside my window are going nuts and that it's really loud outside. But the lights are still on, the TV is still on, the water is still running, and... well, there you have it. According to Drudge's handy-dandy weather maps, the middle of the storm should be passing directly overhead sometime tonight.

I got knocked offline there for awhile, but finally managed to get it back. Unfortunately, now that I'm on, I need to get some sleep in case there's work tomorrow. Serious.

But if I can't sleep, I'll be back.

JEFFERSON DAVIS IS DEAD

But you already knew that. No, I mean the interstate -- Jefferson Davis Highway -- the very northern tip of which I happen to live across from here in Arlington, where it meets I-395 and the Washington metro area. I've been watching it for five minutes, and there is nobody on that road. Sure, on the surface streets just below there is the occasional SUV -- all the better to roll over in! -- but it looks like nobody in the area is going anywhere right now. Probably a wise move.

Also wise: Armed Prophet is going to make dinner. I should've bought snacks, but everything I have in the kitchen needs to be cooked. Well, I suppose I could subsist on Taco Bell hot sauce packets. But it hasn't come to that... yet.

ONE MILLION WITHOUT POWER

And Armed Prophet is not one of them... yet. Nor is it quite like the August Northeast blackout... yet.

ARMED PROPHET @ HURRICANE ISABEL

That's what I am now, for now. I'll be "Armed Prophet @ The Recall" soon enough again. Maybe sooner, if this thing doesn't pan out up here.

TIMELY POSTING

You know, I also blogged (scroll up) the President's Day Snowstorm in February, when I was trapped in my office in Foggy Bottom for at least three nights. So far, that was more interesting than this. But then that too began with posts like, "Uh, nothing yet." But really, at least four hours into this, we've sure had wind and we've sure had rain, but I'm just not sold. Maybe I should wait until the eye is a few miles to my west, as supposedly will happen sometime tonight.

TOTAL CALM

Well, not exactly. But where did the howling go? If it wasn't for the steady drizzle and gray sky, one might be forgiven for calling the wind outside an easy late summer breeze...

ROB MARCIANO?!?!

What's the weather guy... er, meterologist from Portland's ABC affiliate doing on CNN?! When I talked to my younger brother today, it was 62 degrees and calm. Uh, what?

UPDATE: Apparently he's no longer listed on the KATU anchor page. I suppose he's since left for more lucrative pastures...

P.S. A better question, for Portland residents: What ever happened to John Marler? Did Cathy Marshall catch him doing the horizontal tango with Anna Song?

WINDY, RAINY

That's all I have to report at this hour. Watching Crossfire the last half hour, it looks like things aren't quite as bad in the District, where they tape the show less than a mile from where I work and only a few miles from where I am now, in Crystal City.

If the National Weather Service's Virginia radar (thanks, Drudge) is accurate, then the real storm is still a few hours away from us. I'm looking forward to that.

Meanwhile, it's been alternately windy, not so windy, really windy, really really windy, then windy again. And raining throughout. Ho hum.

Where's the hurricane? Come on!

HERE I AM!!!!

One of Armed Prophet's West Coast correspondents -- we'll call him Paul Holmes -- writes in:

The only thing that could top Isabel would be maybe a Scorpions concert, in terms of being rocked in the manner that a hurricane might rock one. I wish I was there.

I can't add to that. But I can respond to his question:

Got enough whiskey to hold out?

To paraphrase Homer Simpson, does beer count as whiskey?

HURRICANE BLOGGING

I really should be, shouldn't I? And I should do it before the power goes out.

Well, I went outside an hour ago, to pick up a six-pack of Oregon beer (not too hard to find, though the selection isn't great) and, though I didn't really need it, some milk. Not much, I thought. A little windy, but nothing I haven't seen in Oregon. Nor as bad as I saw right here in Arlington a few weeks ago.

Well -- there went a gust just a second ago ago! Pretty good. I was almost impressed for a minute. I see Fox News has Geraldo out on the North Carolina coast. I may be impressed if he gets carried off to sea.

So, I've got K Street and Carnivale queued up on the telly -- better watch them before I lose power.

More to come, maybe.

P.S. Whoa! A CNN correspondent just got hit with a piece of wood. Not bad...

UPDATE K Street was worth watching, although I'd already seen most of the good clips on the news networks earlier this week. Everybody seemed to do a pretty good job of playing themselves, Howard Dean in particular. And regardless of what I think of his politics or his apparent decision to hide the debate coaching he got from James Carville, one has to give him credit for taking the risk of appearing at all. (Then again, Dean didn't get where he is by playing it safe.)

As for Carnivale, it seems that HBO got its audio feed mixed up with HBO Latino. Armed Prophet speaks a little Nihongo, but no Espanol beyond what I picked up from Sesame Street. I'll try to catch it tomorrow, if I can.

HER NAME ISABEL

How does that old Bjork song go?

Nature forges a deal / to raise wonderful hell...

Yes, although that was called "Isobel" and therefore not germane to what's happening outside my window. Yes, Hurricane Isabel -- Armed Prophet's first -- is bearing down on the Washington Metro area right now. Yesterday, the sky was summer blue and the temperature was a pleasant 72. It's been overcast since the mid-evening last night, and while we've seen just a sprinkle of precipitqation, it's the winds starting to howl that proves something more is going on than mere inclement weather.

Unlike the federal government and nearly all others in the company I work for, I had to report for work as normal. However, as the Metro subway closed at 11AM, we got out a few hours early. So here I am now, waiting for the fun to start.

Naturally, Armed Prophet will be going up to the rooftop for a better luck. Well, not until the winds hit 50 mph. If this is my last post ever, then I've surely been blown into to Fairfax County. Check back soon!

SMILE, YOU'RE ON...

Curiously, Arianna Huffington appears to have now undeclined to participate in the David Hume Kennerly photo project Candidate Camera.

Why the change of heart? Maybe her "grassroots director," Van Jones, convinced her it could still be grassroots even with Gateway's backing. Or maybe she needed to sell the digital camera for campaign funds? Or maybe... just maybe she realized she needed someone to give her free media.

P.S. Yikes, not much of a smile there, if you check out her one picture. Also -- only one picture?! If you're going to change your mind, at least make the most out of it.

QUESTION AUTHORITY

That's what Armed Prophet was going be today -- your "question authority" -- by runing all of the questions for next week's debate held by the California Broadcaster's Association. Then I see Dan Weintraub posted them earlier today.

Well, my headline idea was still better. Or worse, as the case may be.

THE PROPHET RETURNS

Ah! Here I am! Yes, I know I said Armed Prophet would be back on Monday the 15th, but I underestimated how tired I'd be while overestimating what kind of handle I'd have on the news when I returned.

Hiking around Central Park, across the Brooklyn Bridge, and from bar to bar will, given time, rob you of the will to do anything but sleep. Nor can I say much for the news of last week. Relying on the New York Post and the Times Square ABC News reader board will do that to you. All I knew on Monday morning was that "Bennifer" was over and that a heretofore unknown third Williams sister had been shot dead.

And so Armed Prophet took a little bit longer of a break, to recharge and reacquaint. And then, it happened. Yes, the Ninth Circuit's delay of the recall. Now, I can't say that I called it per se, but I certainly had a feeling about it.

In any case, blogging on the recall and other matters will begin again. However, Armed Prophet will probably be running at half speed or even less for a few weeks or so, meaning I may not post every weekday as I usually have. There are a few reasons for this. One is that while I'm almost over the death of Johnny Cash, it will take me a bit longer to get over the passing of John Ritter. And there are two other reasons that have almost as much to do with it: One, I have other writing projects that will be occupying my afternoons for awhile. Two, I am beginning the process of moving this site off Blogger, redesigning the layout, and tinkering with my unwritten mission statement.

Until then, Armed Prophet will continue blogging at this location. And once I move, you'll be the first to hear about it.

As yet, I have no idea how long this will take. Could be a few weeks, might be a couple of months. Place your bets.

HIATUS? HIATUS!

Early tomorrow Armed Prophet is leaving for a week of drunken carousing (and on Thursday, some solemn reflection) in New York City. Therefore, all blogging activities will be suspended from this post onward, until next Monday.

Of course, I made these plans well before the California recall qualifed, and I'm afraid I must leave behind my favorite story of the summer, at least for this week. And what a week it is going to be. Arnold Schwarzenegger will show up on O'Reilly this Wednesday. After a week of virtually no publicly announced polls, look for at least a couple to be released this week. If Tom McClintock really has taken support away from Schwarzenegger as rumor has it, things could really get nasty on the GOP side. Most of the right-leaning interest groups have now endorsed Arnold, but if Kaus and Drudge keep digging and rumormongering, Arnold could lose more conservatives to McClintock. As I said, it could be nasty.

On the Democratic side, Cruz Bustamante is looking more and more like a joker, not to mention a left-wing crazy. From his refusal to renounce the racialist views of MEChA, to his jaw-droppingly obtuse notions about fixing the price of gas in California, and his quasi-legal acceptance (until yesterday) of massive donations from the Viejas tribe, Bustamante has gone from unknown to presumed lightweight to known lightweight to the most dangerous candidate for governor in awhile.

Then there's Gray Davis, who is far more viable as a possible governor post-October 7 than I would have thought a month or so ago. He may not have Bill Clinton's charm, but he does have the survival skills. And even now, as he's signed a bill giving illegal immigrants legal drivers licenses, I'm not sure the public is upset enough to kick him out. Watch when he's asked about the drivers license bill in interviews, and watch him carefully avoid the word "illegal." Someone who didn't know any better would think he was signing a bill allowing legal immigrants to have drivers licenses, and probably wonder why they weren't already allowed to have them. No, Davis is obscuring the meaning of this bill, and I do think it has a huge propensity to backfire. Schwarzenegger is right to make this a big issue. But it's not a sure thing.

Then there's Peter Ueberroth, Arianna Huffington and Peter Camejo, about which I can only say, respectively: meh, blah and ugh. Meh: Ueberroth's tax amnesty plan is a terrible idea unless the federal government goes along with it. And why didn't he run a decade ago? Blah: Message to Arianna -- you don't represent anybody. Ralph Nader's White House candidacy was pie-in-the-sky, but all he wanted was 5%, enough to get funds for '04. Arianna's ambition is about as delusional as anything I've ever seen. Ugh: Camejo's remark during the debates about 17th Century Europeans as being "illegal immigrants," when discussing the now-Davis-signed bill mentioned above, was disgusting and further proof that the Green Party doesn't take politics seriously. And besides, if Californians want to vote for a socialist, they'll vote for Bustamante.

While I'm gone, I highly recommend you visit the following sites, wherefrom I regularly find recall-related news and commentary:

• California Insider -- If Glenn Reynolds is the Blogfather, then Dan Weintraub is at least the Don of Recall blogging. Or something. He's actually on the ground in Sacramento and on the trail, reporting and commenting, from a mostly-libertarian perspective. But if you're reading Armed Prophet, you're probably already a regular reader.
  
• Damnum Absque Injuria -- Xrlq is in the middle of the best series of summaries on the 135 ... 134 ... 133 recall candidates. Seems to be caught between Arnold and McClintock, which sounds about like the average California Republican, but with better writing skills.
  
• Fresh Potatoes -- At least as pro-Schwarzenegger as Armed Prophet and a little more optimistic, too. Good commentary from an Orange County lawyer with some Sacramento experience, plus the occasional link to this blog.
  
• PrestoPundit -- I know I already compared Weintraub to Reynolds, but PrestoPundit is the true Instapundit of the recall -- more links, quick quotes and a wider summary than most. If you missed a story, don't worry -- he didn't.
  
• Sharon Davis Blog -- Oh, please.
  
• Angry Clam -- Once upon a time, this was a great libertarian-conservative blog. Then about two months ago, it turned into an anti-Schwarzenegger rant-a-thon. Ugh. Yet for some reason, I still check in daily...
  
• Hugh Hewitt -- If anybody in the old media gets the blogosphere, it's Hewitt. And he gets the recall. And James Lileks. But that's beside the point.
  
• Jill Stewart -- Wow, she's good.
  
• Candidate Camera -- This is fun. Arianna declined to participate? Shocker!
  

Well, that's all for now. Armed Prophet will return Monday, September 15.

McKINLEY SERVED COFFEE HERE

Armed Prophet's younger sister came into the District this weekend, and so I've been playing tourist. (When you live and work here, you never get the time. Much as I expect people from Anaheim haven't been to Disneyland in years, I toured the Capitol and Washington Monument for the first time.) Yesterday we visited relatives in Maryland, and we drove out to the Antietam battle site near Sharpsburg, a few miles from the border of what is now West Virginia.

In the southern part of the park site, near what's called Burnside Bridge (note to Portlanders -- different namesake), is a tall, granite monument with a barely readable inscription. It is dedicated to one William McKinley then a Sergeant out of Ohio and later, of course, the first President of the 20th Century. This monument marks the spot where the then-twentysomething McKinley "personally and without orders served hot coffee and warm food to every man in the regiment..."

Uh... okay!

BCRA ROCKS?

Armed Prophet happened to be walking past the Supreme Court around noon, while the Supreme Court was hearing arguments for and against the so-called "reform" of campaign finance. On the sidewalk, camera crews sat around in canvas chairs, and protesters stood around with signs. Well, a half-dozen protesters. And the best they could do was "BCRA Rules." Wow. If the strength of the "reform"ers was accurately reflected in the size and rhetorical skill of that crowd, they would surely lose. Instead, a presumably reluctant Ted Olson is making the arguments and the Court has been fairly unpredictable and a good deal more "liberal" than many "liberals" usually would think. I can't call this from where I stand, but I do expect to be disappointed.

BIG THUNDER MOUNTAIN DEATHTRAP

I knew
this would happen. I was just convinced, at age 12, that it would have happened then, to me. But it did happen.

RED LEADER, I'M GOING IN

Earlier this morning PoliticsNH.com, the New Hampshire news site overseen by the mysterious, pseudonymous Josiah Bartlett (not the one on "West Wing"), posted a story about local Wiccans who had found spiritual meaning in... the presidential campaign of Howard Dean.

Sound a little hard to believe? Well, before making up your mind, you may want to know the article featured quotes by and about Tycho Celchu and Wedge Antilles. Hmmm... does at least one of those names seem a little familiar? If not, here's a Google search for the first name, and a Google search for the second.

The story has since been removed from the PoliticsNH web site, but Armed Prophet has managed to get ahold of it. It follows:

A religious following turns into a political one, as Dean
MeetUp.com gatherings take place in state



By Sam Youngman

PoliticsNH.com



Sept. 4 -- Tycho Celchu found what may be her political savior while looking for fellow practitioners of her religion.



Celchu, a Wicca disciple -- a religion described by Celchu as pagan witchcraft -- attended her first Howard Dean "Meet Up" in Portsmouth Wednesday night after finding the meetings on meetup.com, a meeting place for hobbyists and enthusiasts of various types.



Celchu came to the meeting as one of the initiated and left one step closer to being a true believer -- in Dean.



She and her roommate, Wedge Antilles, both of Exeter, were two of about 50 in attendance at O'Naturals coffee shop, there to either spread the gospel of Dean or see what the former Vermont governor has to offer.



The meetings, one of 10 last night in New Hampshire, have been given much credit for sparking an immense grass roots effort for Dean, one that has propelled him high in early polls and helped tip the cash cow in first and second quarter fund-raising.



For the novice, Meetup.com began as a dating service, morphed into an Internet meeting place for those with similar interests and, most recently, gave Dean supporters and the curious a chance to set a time and place to find new ways to support the man they think should be President.



At the Portsmouth meeting, volunteers and supporters welcomed first-timers, then fell on them with the Word of Dean, perhaps distracting them from the bottles of Heinz organic ketchup on each table.



The volunteers spread out among the Dean meetup.com virgins, trying to indoctrinate them into their seemingly effective spider web technique of getting out their message.



A newcomer, is armed with a list of "Questions to get 'The Great American Conversation' started," then encouraged to emerge from the coffee shop and engage others who may have questions about or want to support Dean.



Those who are signed up are then entered into the Dean's nationwide database, thus the spider web. Volunteers estimated the database to contain about 375,000 names now, with a goal of 500,000 by the end of the month. Nearly 100,000 have signed up for Dean on MeetUp.com.



The newcomers, convinced, not convinced or maybe afraid of seeming ambiguous, are then given blank sheets of paper and encouraged to write letters to the editor of their local paper.



Celchu, a network administrator who has been unemployed for the past year, said she was struggling with a case of writer's block, unable to remove the negative tone from her writing -- as suggested.



Caroline French is no stranger to these meetings.



French said she has long been involved in politics from the time of Martin Luther King, Jr.'s "I Have a Dream Speech" to the Gore 2000 campaign to famous Dean house parties of early this year.



"(Dean) calls us his stalkers," French said of their allegiance to Dean." We said, 'That's not exactly flattering...what would the Secret Service say?'"



French and her husband, Gordon, said through their years of political activism, they've never seen such community involvement in the race for the nomination.



"This is more grass roots than anything I've ever seen before," Caroline French said.



"The spirit, the dedication (is) really amazing," husband Gordon was quick to add.



Celchu came with a spirit and left "leaning heavily" toward the dedication.

Ha! As far as I know, this site is the only page on the Internet now hosting the story. Maybe a few Deaniacs or Kerryheads will find it amusing.

P.S. PoliticsNH.com may have removed the above story, but a trace is left. Below is a note now posted on the front page:

Note to readers: A story published this morning on PoliticsNH.com used a source that we later learned had the name of a Star Wars character.



The source attended the Dean MeetUp.com gathering in Portsmouth. In a Star Wars book the character name given was that of a spy.



The galactic espionage artist also supplied the Dean campaign with other false information.



The story has been removed from the site within a few hours of being first published. We regret any confusion and urge all campaigns to be on the lookout for a Chewbacca wearing a rival's campaign button.

I repeat: Ha!

DID WE JUST LOSE THE WAR?

I don't know, but the Bill Sammon story now headlining Drudge is anything but encouraging:

U.S. OFFERS TO REPORT TO U.N. ON IRAQ

I see no details -- no proposed provisions, just a few comments by Colin Powell, a handful of Democrats and diplomats on background. For example:

Several diplomats said they would consider a resolution that shares power and responsibility in Iraq, not just the risks. Several said they hoped Washington would accept significant international input on reconstruction and economic issues.

So we're going to let Syria and France advise us on how to build Iraq's society and economy? Have you seen their societies and economies lately? If we want Iraq to turn into the Bekaa Valley with a mandatory 30-hour work week, then by all means, let's bring them in. And Nancy Pelosi is calling this a victory.

To be realistic, the UN eventually needed to be brought in -- but with them reporting to us, not the other way around. Politicians now facing some heat because a nowhere-near-Vietnamlike one solder per day is being killed, in a war at least as crucial as that one, will enjoy a short-term reprieve. But if and when there comes a power struggle over how this should be done, and when we hear of the Baathist Syrians mucking up the process, we'll see how short-sighted this was.

It's a good thing France doesn't have 7 electoral votes; President Bush just might let Chirac have all the oilfields if they did.

MEETUP

Looks like Arnold just got himself set up with a MeetUp site. Only 75 members as of a few minutes ago, but I bet that number jumps over the next few days.

P.S. As of 11:30 PM EST, that number is up to 1112. Still nowhere near Howard Dean's 100K-plus support (and unlikely to get there) but it looks like Arnold can "open" a website like he can a picture. (Is that my first gratuitous movie star reference? And I couldn't even bring myself to sell it, either.)

Also, here's the Politics & Activism page for Meetup -- Arnold's 1100 is more than President Bush has thus far (although Bush hasn't promoted it). And Peter Ueberroth of all people has 800 (no idea when he started it). Can http://noonrecallyesonbustamante.meetup.com be far behind?

WHY SCHWARZENEGGER

Xrlq posts a lengthy e-mail from a reader explaining why Schwarzenegger the moderate may end up moving the country as a whole in a conservative direction -- namely that a strong Arnold could boost Republican fortunes in 2004. I think he's right about this, but he goes too far in saying this could lead to President Bush taking California. Bush's approval ratings are pretty low in the Golden State, and nothing Arnold could do would change that. At the same time, he needn't actually win California for it to be tactically useful; if the state is competitive at all, the Democrats will have to fight there instead of a red state (actually, more like several red states). Imagine Democrats forcing Bush to fight for Texas; they couldn't, but it would be a good approximate vice versa.

What he writes focuses primarily on the benefits of electing Arnold, but let's also not forget the dire consequences of not electing Arnold, which (I'm sorry, folks) means Gov. Cruz Bustamante or three more years of Gray Davis. California Republicans are in a very precarious situation. In a few months time, they could get the governorship back -- or they could be shut out of statewide elections for a generation.

Ironically enough, he points out that Schwarzenegger the moderate would likely make it possible for the country to move further right in coming years.

The reader also makes the best analogy I've seen yet about why California voters electing McClintock would be so unlikely:

Giant ocean liners cannot turn on a dime. They turn in slow, sweeping curves. The Democrats are at the helm right now, and if you want to turn the ship around, the voters may insist that it be done gradually.

That's pretty much right. Armed Prophet always tries to stress the importance of incrementalism, and in the case of taking back a state with such a loopy political structure, you can't get everything you want all at once.

P.S. Well worth reading is the back-and-forth between Xrlq himself and Angry Clam at the bottom. Both have their points, but I still think the Clam loses.

EGGING HIM ON

Schwarzenegger is speaking at a public event right now, and just moments ago, as he was walking through the crowd, somebody threw an egg at him. I think we can rule out the Tombots (as Hugh Hewitt calls them) and chalk this up to left-wingers. It may be something of an overgeneralization to say conservatives are too mature to throw eggs at an opponent, but probably not by too much.

WHAT'S FRUM SMOKING?

David Frum writes today at NRO:

Conservative television watchers may disagree with Paul Begala, but most understand that Begala is a decent if seriously misguided human being. Most too seem to agree that he fights fair.

What's that? Most conservatives agree Paul Begala is "decent" and "fights fair"? That's nuts, and I'm surprised to see a true blue conservative bending over backward to praise a Democrat for something undeserved. Begala's signature look is the ear-to-ear smirk when he's just got away saying something outrageous, usually about President Bush being a liar.

As for the rest of his post, about how nuts James Carville seems to be these days, no argument here. I think maybe Frum's just mixing up the point that Begala has it together, whereas Carville is falling to pieces.

WHOOPS!

Birthday (drinking) celebration stretched into Tuesday. If one can go a full birthday weekend without paying for drinks or smokes, that's a good birthday.

Posting could be erratic; another project looms for my day job. And posting is to be short-lived, as yet another vacation approaches. Thought I should give fair warning.